Jun 10, 2026, 05:00 AM ET

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is here! Four years after Argentina defeated France in Qatar, the newest edition of the planet's premier sporting occasion begins with Mexico against South Africa on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, launching 104 contests over the weeks ahead.

This signals the moment for ESPN contributors worldwide to share forecasts on trophies, engaging sides and which host country - the United States, Mexico or Canada - is poised to progress deepest.

Here is what the 19 specialists surveyed anticipate, beginning with the central query: which side will claim the trophy on July 19?

Top-four forecasts

The squads viewed as frontrunners by our contributors are evident: Spain and France. These European giants collected 16 of 19 votes for champion, while Spain featured on every single ballot.

Although seven contributors foresee Argentina mounting another strong campaign after their 2022 success, none selected them to defend the title. Can Lionel Messi and teammates exceed these projections? Their quest for consecutive triumphs starts Tuesday versus Algeria.

Final World Cup Power Rankings before the tournament begins
- Ian Darke's World Cup preview: Favorites, surprises to watch, Brazil to win?
- World Cup Rank: The 50 best players in the 2026 tournament

Individual award forecasts

Spain's Lamine Yamal appears destined for best young player honors. Thirteen of 19 chose the Barcelona forward for that prize, and five anticipate him claiming the Golden Ball as top overall performer.

Among elite finishers worldwide, France's Kylian Mbappé stood out: seven named him Golden Boot recipient for leading scorer, and three selected him for the Golden Ball.

Which underdog side is likeliest to advance far?

Lizzy Becherano: Japan. Japan's attacking approach paired with a cautious five-man defense creates an intriguing unit.

Bill Connelly: Colombia. A solid mix of veterans, including on defense, plus players such as Luis Díaz means they avoid over-reliance on James Rodríguez.

Rob Dawson: Norway. Erling Haaland ranks as the planet's premier goal scorer, and that edge should propel Stale Solbakken's squad deep in their first World Cup appearance since 1998.

Tom Hamilton: Ecuador. Loaded with skill, they figure to emerge as the surprise package.

Cesar Hernandez: Japan. Their roster offers plenty of appeal, and a quarterfinal run or beyond would not astonish.

Alex Kirkland: Ecuador possess elite talents including Moisés Caicedo, Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapié. Based on qualifying, they rank as South America's most undervalued side and could reach the quarterfinals.

Julien Laurens: Japan. They impressed four years ago and now boast even greater strength, featuring a skilled group with experience and energetic play that proves tough to counter.

Beth Lindop: Norway could excel. A golden generation combined with Haaland up top makes them difficult to dismiss.

Gab Marcotti: Ecuador feature strong defensive depth capable of wearing down knockout foes. If winger Alan Minda finds form and striker Enner Valencia regains past levels, anything remains possible.

Mark Ogden: Portugal. Underdogs given their lack of prior World Cup titles and limited expectations, yet their roster of Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Bernardo Silva, Pedro Neto and Cristiano Ronaldo allows them to defeat anyone on their day.

Connor O'Halloran: Senegal. With the field wide open, they could mirror Morocco's deep run from four years ago.

James Olley: Mexico. Discussions of conditions are constant, and the altitude edge may prove decisive for the co-hosts.

Most surprising side unlikely to exit the group stage?

Becherano: The Netherlands boast strong personnel, yet manager Ronald Koeman could prove their undoing.

Connelly: Uruguay. After a challenging 2025 with few warmup fixtures, missing the knockout phase remains possible despite the expanded format.

Dawson: The larger field makes early exits rarer for experienced nations. The Netherlands should advance but face scrutiny in a group with Sweden, Japan and Tunisia.

Hamilton: Paraguay. Their group pits four sides each capable of claiming points against one another.

Hernandez: Senegal. Encounters with France and Haaland's Norway plus a poor goal difference could sideline them.

Kirkland: Egypt. Surprises will be limited by the format, yet last Africa Cup of Nations semifinalists could feature.

Laurens: Sweden. Manager Graham Potter draws limited confidence, striker Alexander Isak lacks full fitness, they advanced via playoffs after no qualifier wins, and they face a demanding group.

Lindop: The expanded event limits major shocks, though Group F could see the Netherlands stumble despite favored status.

Marcotti: Uruguay. Marcelo Bielsa may not suit this group of players.

Ogden: The United States. Türkiye's playoff win creates a tough Group D, forcing the Americans to beat Paraguay and Australia. Pochettino has yet to build momentum, and recent results offer little optimism.

O'Halloran: The United States. A major surprise, yet no fixture is guaranteed and host pressure adds weight.

Olley: Australia. They reached the round of 16 four years ago and fell narrowly to champions Argentina.

Which side will captivate neutrals as the most engaging to follow?

Becherano: Spain. Watching Yamal, Marc Cucurella, Gavi, Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres is consistently entertaining.

Connelly: Norway. Underdogs with star power who avoid excessive seriousness, plus a chance to upset France in the group phase.

Dawson: Japan. Their 1-0 win over England at Wembley in March proved they can deliver against top sides.

Hamilton: Curaçao. Everyone roots for underdogs, with hype building through groups. Later, Japan.

Hernandez: Uruguay. A Marcelo Bielsa-led side promises brash, relentless action regardless of depth reached.

Kirkland: Spain, if they approach Euro 2024 levels, will deliver the tournament's most enjoyable football.

Laurens: Colombia. Luis Díaz, Luis Suárez, James Rodríguez, Daniel Muñoz and Jhon Arias provide abundant attacking quality.

Lindop: Brazil. The nation defines the event, and talents such as Endrick and Vinícius Júnior could deliver excitement.

Can Vini Jr. lead Brazil to World Cup glory?

Marcotti: Japan operate as a disciplined, entertaining unit that creates problems for opponents and often produces upsets.

Ogden: Türkiye. Vincenzo Montella's squad blends experience with young talent. Arda Güler could star, while Kenan Yildiz offers classic wing play to generate chances.

O'Halloran: Brazil. Always compelling at World Cups, and their group offers genuine competition unlike many elite sides.

Olley: Ivory Coast. Fast, entertaining and able to defy odds, they featured 15 different scorers in qualifying.

How far will the USMNT progress?

Becherano: It hinges on the version that appears, yet the round of 16 seems realistic given roster talent.

Connelly: Round of 16.

Dawson: Round of 32. They should advance from Group D behind Türkiye, though a potential matchup with Egypt looms as difficult.

Hamilton: Round of 16, exiting against Belgium, though World Cups often defy logic and form.

Hernandez: Round of 16. That aligns with expectations given the setup and possible opponents.

What would make a good World Cup for the USMNT?

Kirkland: The round of 16 represents the ceiling.

Laurens: Round of 16. The U.S. should finish second behind Türkiye, defeat Group G's runner-up in the last 32, then fall to Argentina.

Lindop: The U.S. reach the round of 16 and possibly the quarterfinals.

Marcotti: Round of 16, with Belgium's Jérémy Doku and Thibaut Courtois awaiting if they top the group.

Ogden: The group stage. This edition could prove challenging for the co-hosts.

O'Halloran: Round of 16. Failure to win Group D risks an early clash with Argentina.

Olley: Round of 16. The U.S. should exit the group and potentially claim a knockout win, yet an experienced opponent likely awaits.

Which host nation advances furthest?

Becherano: Mexico. The Estadio Azteca advantage should never be overlooked.

Connelly: The U.S., as Mexico and Canada appear unlikely to reach the round of 16.

Dawson: Mexico, though their group with South Africa, South Korea and Czechia proves tougher than assumed.

Hamilton: Mexico, with the Azteca factor proving massive.

Hernandez: Mexico. A favorable group should carry El Tri at least to the quarterfinals, with anything beyond counting as historic.

Kirkland: Canada. A quarterfinal appearance, followed by elimination by the first elite opponent, would still mark them as the top-performing host.

Laurens: Mexico and Canada should both finish second in groups and meet in the round of 32 in Los Angeles, with Canada advancing before falling to a top side. Thus the U.S. and Canada reach the last 16 while Mexico exits in the round of 32.

Lindop: Mexico reach the quarters thanks to exciting young talent.

Marcotti: Canada's path appears relatively favorable compared with fellow hosts.

Ogden: Mexico. A soft group with South Africa, South Korea and Czechia plus home games in Mexico City for early knockouts if they top the group offers an edge, even if not a vintage squad.

O'Halloran: Mexico, though knockout opponents will dictate much.

Olley: Mexico. A case could also be made for the U.S.