Jun 17, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

Eight years after Brooks Koepka mastered Shinnecock Hills in a tournament where no one broke par, the U.S. Open returns to one of golf's sternest tests.

With constant wind and open greens, Shinnecock will again challenge the world's top players and probe every element of their skills, particularly their mental strength. The player leading the standings on Sunday will have survived one of golf's toughest challenges.

Here are five key angles heading into the third major of the year.

What performance do you anticipate from Scottie Scheffler as he pursues a career Grand Slam?

Schlabach: Scheffler has secured just one tour win this year, coming in his opening event at the American Express on Jan. 25. Still, he has posted several near misses, with three runner-up finishes and two third-place results. He has placed inside the top 25 in all 12 of his appearances.

He continues to pace the tour in strokes gained total (2.162) and tee to green (1.696), while ranking third around the green (.535) and fourth off the tee (.657). His game remains strong overall. Even his putting, once a clear weakness, has improved to 19th in strokes gained putting (.466).

The shift from his prior four seasons, which brought 19 wins and four majors, shows in his approach play. Scheffler has converted just 21.2 percent of fairway shots on par-4s and par-5s inside 15 feet this year, down from 32.5 percent between 2022 and 2025.

The line between victory and top-five results stays thin. With his major record and short-game touch, a strong showing here would not surprise.

"I'd say I feel like I've been close most of the year," Scheffler said Tuesday. "I feel like I just haven't been as sharp as I needed to be. I think the margins in this game are so small. For me to be winning a lot of tournaments, you've got to just be really, really sharp. I feel like maybe I've just been a touch dull because I think statistically I'm maybe leading the FedEx Cup. I think I'm leading the strokes gained statistics, so by no means is it a bad year. Is it up to the play I've had the previous couple of years? Probably not, but it's not far off."

Scheffler turns 30 on Sunday, which could coincide with a U.S. Open title.

Uggetti: At his peak, Scheffler could navigate Shinnecock with precision. The layout rewards disciplined shot-making, an area where he excels.

Yet recent U.S. Opens and this season show vulnerability when conditions turn variable. At the Memorial he expressed frustration with caddie Ted Scott after a wind adjustment went wrong.

Wind will be a constant factor at Shinnecock, especially on Thursday. How he handles imperfect situations could separate another solid result from completing the career Grand Slam.

Which lesser-known players might contend this week?

Schlabach: Few expected J.J. Spaun to win at Oakmont last year, so another surprise remains possible at Shinnecock Hills.

The past four U.S. Open champions sat outside the top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking: Matt Fitzpatrick (No. 18 in 2022), Wyndham Clark (No. 32 in 2023), Bryson DeChambeau (No. 38 in 2024) and Spaun (No. 25 in 2025).

Shinnecock resembles a links course found in Scotland or Ireland, so success will require patience, delicate short-game touch and creative putting.

With strong winds forecast, particularly Thursday, and tricky green complexes, players such as Robert MacIntyre, Alex Noren or Sepp Straka could feature.

MacIntyre has succeeded in firm, windy Scottish events. After missing cuts at the Masters and PGA Championship, he finished solo second in last year's U.S. Open.

Accurate tee shots will matter greatly. Fairways are wider than in 2018, yet rough stands about 5 inches high. Straight drivers such as Aaron Rai and Si Woo Kim could benefit.

Kim owns eight top-10 finishes this season and ranks third in driving accuracy (69.8 percent) and sixth in approach play (.690). His putting ranks 101st (-.098), but a hot streak could change that.

Uggetti: Consider Viktor Hovland. After strong playoff results years ago he has struggled, posting two missed cuts and seven finishes outside the top 30. A month off preceded a third-place result at the RBC Canadian Open.

Hovland's form can shift quickly. Last week he led the field in strokes gained approach and ranked 12th in putting, skills that could prove decisive at Shinnecock.

Which player stands a realistic chance of claiming a first major title?

Schlabach: Russell Henley could rise and capture his first major if fairways, greens and steady pars define the week.

Henley sits fifth in the world after his sixth PGA Tour win at the Charles Schwab Challenge on May 28.

He leads the tour in driving accuracy (71.9 percent) and scrambling (69.5 percent), attributes well suited to Shinnecock.

Henley has performed well in majors, recording six top-10s in his past 11 appearances, including a tie for third at the Masters. He posted consecutive top-10s in the last two U.S. Opens and Open Championships.

He co-led after round one of the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock and finished tied for 25th.

Uggetti: Tommy Fleetwood also merits attention. In 2018 he closed with a 63 and nearly made a 62 that would have forced a playoff with Koepka.

Fleetwood still seeks his first major. This layout fits his ball-striking strengths. He ranks among the top six in strokes gained this season and fifth in short game. Putting remains his main area for improvement (69th on tour). Another top-10 is likely, yet a win would require an even stronger performance than eight years ago.

How will the LIV golfers fare this week?

Schlabach: Focus will fall on Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm.

DeChambeau arrives after consecutive missed cuts in majors and appeared unsettled at the Masters. He tested new TaylorMade prototype drivers on the range this week. It remains unclear whether he will use the 3D-printed 5-iron from Augusta.

Rahm appears positioned for a strong result. He has two LIV wins this season and finished runner-up at the PGA Championship on a demanding course. He captured the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines at 6 under.

Rahm has posted three top-10 major finishes in the past five events and is playing at a high level again.

Questions surrounding LIV Golf's future may affect focus.

How will Shinnecock play?

Schlabach: The USGA's ability to manage green speeds will rank as the second-biggest story after Scheffler's Grand Slam pursuit.

The organization struggled with conditions in 2004 and 2018.

Shinnecock ranks among the hardest tests in professional golf. Since the final round in 1986, the field scoring average has finished at least two strokes over par in every round (13 straight rounds).

"It's a great golf course," Rory McIlroy said. "I think if everything is going the way everyone wants it in terms of weather, setup, I think it's the best championship test in the country. I think it tests all aspects of the game: driving, iron play, you need to have your wits about you on the greens. It's a lot of strategy, thoughtfulness."

The USGA plans to cut four greens higher due to wind exposure. Light rain is possible Thursday and Friday, yet greens should firm and dry.

"Look, it's a golf course where it can turn very quickly," McIlroy said. "You get a day like yesterday with a lot of wind and dry, clear conditions like this, and I think we're just going to have to be mindful of that as the week goes on."

Uggetti: Expect conditions tougher than typical. Wind will dominate, with gusts nearing 40 mph on Thursday and Friday. One caddie noted steady breeze during Monday practice. Exposed greens such as the seventh and 11th could become nearly unplayable.

Some players welcome firmer conditions. Matt Fitzpatrick said he wants the course as dry and firm as possible.

Rough sits at 5 inches, and greens will quicken over the weekend if the USGA increases speed.

"Hopefully we can get the greens to firm up over the weekend, and we'll see some of the greatness of Shinnecock where the shots in are so important to hit these small areas," Adam Scott said. "Then you'll get a great champion."