We have passed the one-third mark of the 2026 MLB campaign and approach the midpoint, so excuses tied to limited data no longer apply for sluggish openings. Could a return toward typical output explain matters? Possibly, yet caution remains essential when applying that idea.

One clear theme across the opening two months involves prominent names failing to deliver at their established levels.

We examine several such performers along with clubs facing broader challenges. For each, we offer an assessment based on early results and then decide if the observation holds true.

Players

Manny Machado no longer ranks among top hitters

After his batting mark fell to .175 (and later reached .166) last weekend, Manny Machado pointed toward analytics as a factor in his struggles. That served as a convenient focus. His remark read:

"The game keeps changing, man. It grows tougher to compete. Strategy plays a bigger role. I wish we could remove analytics from the picture. Too many figures appear now. Too many numbers. I fail to grasp half the items displayed. I check the board and ask teammates, 'What does WCCVBB mean?' These new labels make little sense."

The outburst carried weight. Machado stopped short of fully crediting analytics for his dip and instead circled back to fundamentals: "It returns to basics. See the ball and strike it."

His key point centered on increased difficulty, especially as he nears age 34 in July. Data points to reduced bat speed as a contributor. Records since 2023 show his share of fast swings (75 mph or quicker) dropped from over 66 percent to 53 percent in 2024, 43 percent in 2025, and 41 percent thus far in 2026. He retains solid bat speed, ranking in the 77th percentile, so slowing velocity forms only part of the picture. He pulls the ball airborne slightly more than in recent years, which helps explain his 11 home runs despite the .172 average.

Further review shows his production on fly balls stays close to 2025 levels (.856 slugging versus .805 in 2026, though exit velocity on those balls fell 3.7 mph). Ground-ball results drive the poor overall line:

2024: .268
2025: .242
2026: .101

Even assuming a .242 mark on grounders like last year would add 11 hits and lift his average to .220. That improves matters but leaves room for concern.

Verdict: Real

Machado will avoid finishing at .172, given the low BABIP on grounders. Some rebound appears likely there, yet warning signs suggest he no longer serves as a dependable middle-order presence. This pattern affects most hitters around age 33 or 34. Recall that his steady 2023-25 output already sat below his 2020-22 peak. Seven years remain on his deal.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has become a singles hitter

With the Padres, Tatis delivered a dramatic walk-off homer Wednesday, yet it marked only his second of 2026 after averaging 24 across 133 games in the prior three seasons.

His challenge stems from excessive grounders. Among 157 qualified hitters, he ranks 15th in ground-ball rate. That alone does not account for everything, as Tampa Bay's Junior Caminero posts the same rate while hitting 14 home runs. Tatis retains power potential, with a hard-hit rate in the 91st percentile, but he struggles to drive the ball hard in the air.

He rarely pulls the ball airborne, with Wednesday's homer as an outlier. His pull-fly rate reached 22.2 percent in 2021 and has declined each year since, now at 9 percent in 2026. Average launch angle has also fallen steadily from its 2021 peak to 3.4 degrees this season. Grounders combined with opposite-field flies limit home-run chances.

Verdict: Not real

Mechanics may play a role. Tatis returned to a wider, more closed stance similar to 2023 (14 degrees open versus 38 in 2025). Results have not followed. Additional adjustments could help.

A mental factor might also apply. If so, momentum could build. His first homer on May 30 traveled 451 feet. He doubled off the wall Tuesday at 113.5 mph as part of a four-hit game. The walk-off homer registered 106 mph. Unlike Machado, Tatis remains in his prime. No clear reason exists for sudden power loss. The Padres sit at 35-32 despite struggles from Machado, Tatis, and Jackson Merrill. With the majors' lowest OPS, the offense has only one direction to move.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. no longer produces power

Guerrero hits .282 with a .375 OBP, yet his three home runs leave a .365 slugging percentage, ranking 120th among 157 qualified hitters. His Luis Arraez-style approach fails to aid the Blue Jays. He projects for just 33 extra-base hits. A player with 78 extra-base hits in a prior season and strong postseason form should not post these figures.

"I do not feel like myself, and it shows," Guerrero told reporters in May. "I aim to hit one ball hard. That stays in my mind. I know improvement will come."

Change has not arrived, as he sits on a 21-game homerless stretch.

Core advanced metrics show little shift, with ground-ball rate, pull rate, and launch angle near career averages. He strikes out slightly less often. Hard-hit rate has declined, and swing decisions appear questionable as he makes contact without impact.

Verdict: Not real

Guerrero possesses too much talent to sustain this output. His power has varied across seasons. His peak came in 2021 with 48 home runs, aided by a livelier ball and home games in Dunedin and Buffalo. That remains his only season with a fly-ball rate above 25 percent; it stands at 17.6 percent now. Even last year he finished with 23 home runs and 57 extra-base hits, below elite totals, before surging in the postseason.

Guerrero will emerge from this stretch. He entered last October after a 21-game homerless run. He hit 30 home runs in 2024 after just seven through 24 games. Such droughts recur for a hitter of his strength and contact skills, yet he will exit them.

Teams

The Toronto Blue Jays face lineup concerns

Guerrero is not alone in Toronto, as the club's runs per game fell from 4.93 (fourth in the majors) in 2025 to 4.07 (22nd) this season. They posted the lowest strikeout rate last year and excelled in the postseason with a .285 average and 5.83 runs per game. Contact alone should suffice.

Injuries explain part of the drop, yet the Jays maintain strong contact rates. Only the Rays strike out less. Isolated power slipped from .162 (12th) in 2025 to .136 (26th) now. Guerrero, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Tyler Heineman, and Davis Schneider all show declines. Nathan Lukes hits for average without power. Kazuma Okamoto took over for Bo Bichette and leads in home runs but lacks Bichette's average. Team BABIP dropped from .298 to .289. The core issue centers on lost power across the roster.

Verdict: Real

The Jays enjoyed several career-best or unexpected seasons in 2025, creating doubt about the offense entering this year. Springer delivered elite production at age 35 and figures unlikely to repeat at 36. Contributors such as Heineman, Schneider, and Lukes provided outsized value. Alejandro Kirk's OPS rose nearly 100 points over prior seasons. Bichette joined the Mets.

FanGraphs projects 4.53 runs per game the rest of the way. Kirk should return this weekend after missing time since game five (Brandon Valenzuela has performed well in his place). Addison Barger, limited to nine games, may also return soon. The offense should improve, with much depending on Guerrero.

Will that suffice? Even 4.53 runs per game would sit just above the MLB average of 4.47. That may fall short given run prevention sits only slightly above average.

The Boston Red Sox appear finished

In Wednesday's 7-5 loss to the Rays, the Red Sox struck out 15 times, including 13 against Drew Rasmussen (late homers narrowed the margin). Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, the top three hitters, each struck out in their first three trips. That marked the first such occurrence for a lineup's first three batters since at least 1900.

The start in Boston has looked poor.

The Red Sox average 3.91 runs per game, ahead of only the Padres at 3.81. That marks nearly a run less than last year's 4.85 and would represent Boston's lowest offensive mark since 1992, when the club finished 73-89.

Consensus among fans points to another similar finish.

Verdict: Real

I remain reluctant to abandon hope, having viewed the Red Sox as competitive entering the year, yet the club has appeared flat. The current four-game skid shows no reversal, even with modest gains from Duran and Caleb Durbin.

Notably, the Red Sox stand 10-21 at home, averaging 3.29 runs at Fenway, highlighting the absence of right-handed power beyond Willson Contreras. That ranked as the chief preseason concern and has materialized. Injuries to Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony, the top two projected contributors, have hurt, alongside disappointments such as the demoted Brayan Bello (2-6, 6.34 ERA).

I hesitate to write off the Red Sox entirely, as the rotation beyond Bello has performed adequately and the AL remains open, yet the .409 winning percentage would mark the franchise's worst since 1965 (excluding the shortened 2020 season). Playoff chances appear slim.

The New York Mets face deeper trouble

Did David Stearns and Steve Cohen oversee the worst offseason in MLB history?

They declined to retain Pete Alonso and now field weaker offense and defense at first base.

They surrendered prospects for Freddy Peralta, who posts a middling 4-5 record with a 4.04 ERA.

They added injury-prone Luis Robert Jr., who had struggled at the plate for three years, to play center. With the Mets he has dealt with injury and continued poor hitting.