When FIFA grew the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams, the goal was to draw in powerhouses like India and China, home to 2.7 billion people, instead of smaller nations such as Cape Verde and Curaçao, whose 700,000 residents combined wouldn't fill a single district in Mumbai or Shanghai. Yet the organization overlooked a key issue: with the 2026 event just a month out, no broadcast agreements have been finalized with these Asian giants to air the full slate of 104 matches.

Months back, FIFA reportedly pitched rights for this tournament and the next to New Delhi and Beijing at $100m ($73m) for India and $250m-$300m for China. Prices have tumbled without any deals in sight.

In India, the figure has fallen to $35m, with JioStar's $20m bid the highest so far. This seems odd at first glance. Sony paid $90m for 2014 and Viacom18 handed over $62m for Qatar 2022.

Match times are less favorable for India than in 2022, with only 14 starting before midnight local time - versus nearly all in 2018 and all but 20 in 2022. Still, Shaji Prabhakaran, Asian Football Confederation executive committee member and ex-All India Football Federation general secretary, says scheduling isn't the core problem.

"Timing serves as a convenient excuse," he told the Guardian. "World Cup slots overlap with UEFA Champions League, which Indians tune into regularly, and this isn't the first such tournament they've followed."

Prabhakaran blames limited choices, tight budgets, and shaky faith in sports broadcasting. Viacom, under Reliance in 2022, was a newcomer chasing premium content and willing to take a loss. Today, it's mainly JioStar from the Reliance-Disney tie-up and Sony. "India's sports TV market lacks real rivalry, hurting FIFA, and cricket rules supreme anyway," he noted.

Even with cricket's grip, reports show Indian Premier League viewership on JioStar down 26% this season. Networks hesitate to splurge on a soccer event sans India, with awkward timings. Stars like Brazil, Argentina, Portugal, Germany, and England draw eyes, but many group clashes lack appeal, and the Messi-Ronaldo saga, once massive in India, is waning.

The weakening rupee adds pressure: 54 to the dollar in 2013 for Sony's deal, 78 in 2022, now 95.

China matters more to FIFA, per Reuters, as it grabbed 17.7% of global linear TV viewership in 2022 and 49.8% digitally. Beijing Daily reported FIFA seeking $250m-$300m, but CCTV - traditional World Cup host - budgets $60m-$80m, far below the rumored $120m-$150m drop. Beijing's 12-hour lead over New York hampers ads, and the men's team's absence curbs buzz.

Social media backs CCTV's stance: young fans bypass firewalls easily, and many expect a last-minute deal, especially with FIFA's top team in Beijing. Prabhakaran sees India taking up to two weeks.

Either way, it's trouble for Gianni Infantino. Late discounts for India and China could ripple globally. "Balance is key," Prabhakaran warned. "Undervalue the product, and repercussions follow." Short-term, skipping two nations with over a third of humanity isn't viable.