Unexpected outcomes are common in fantasy football. Whether due to misfortune, situational factors or physical ailments, some players fail to deliver on preseason hopes.

During 2025, eight of the top 25 players based on average draft position posted fantasy scoring at least 25 percent below projections. The prior year saw six of the top 25 picks underperform in similar fashion.

Often, the factors behind one year's letdown reverse course the following season, turning that player into a value pick. Managers tend to overreact to prior disappointments, which is how Christian McCaffrey became available at an ADP of 7.2 last year.

McCaffrey joined two other 2024 disappointments (Travis Etienne Jr. and Chris Olave) who fully recovered in 2025, surpassing even their 2024 projections in total points.

Which players could follow that path in 2026? Here is the breakdown on 2025's notable underachievers: Was the dip merely a one-off season that boosts rebound hopes, or does it point to longer-term challenges?

Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders: Following a record-setting rookie campaign at tight end, Bowers dealt with knee problems that sidelined him for five contests and led to inconsistency, with 37 percent of his output coming in just two games. A quarterback situation involving Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins may limit excitement, yet improved health could return him to elite status. His catch rate of 73.6 percent, yards per route of 1.84 and average depth of target at 6.8 yards aligned closely with his first-year marks. Monitor his training camp updates closely, but the outlook remains ... Verdict: Bad season.

Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers: A fractured ankle that ended seven games plus offensive line troubles prevented any sustained progress in his debut year. Still, he posted three 20-point fantasy games across nine appearances while averaging 15.1 points per contest. Additions like center Tyler Biadasz and healthier returns from tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, combined with Mike McDaniel's arrival as offensive coordinator, could elevate the unit and Hampton's receiving role. This setup offers real potential for an RB1 leap. Verdict: Bad season.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals: Multiple injuries including concussion, appendicitis and heel problems limited Harrison for much of the year, and early results again missed the high marks set at Ohio State. With Jacoby Brissett likely starting at quarterback in Week 1, Harrison's target share dropped sharply to 9.0 percent under Brissett versus 21.6 percent with Kyler Murray. Michael Wilson's strong finish further reduces some rebound upside. Verdict: Bad sign, for 2026 at least.

Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers: Foot and shoulder ailments kept him out for seven games while efficiency numbers declined from his solid 2024 rookie output. Drops occurred in yards per carry (5.4 to 3.4), explosive play rate (13.0 percent to 6.4 percent) and yards after contact (2.47 to 1.57). Kenneth Gainwell's addition creates some backfield uncertainty, though Gainwell's skills could complement Irving and enhance both profiles. At a late fantasy RB2 cost, Irving remains appealing provided he clears rehab hurdles. Verdict: Bad season.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens: Following two standout years, Jackson saw declines across key metrics. His sack rate hit a career high of 9.8 percent, while completion percentage (63.6 percent), interception rate (2.3 percent) and off-target rate (17.3 percent) all reached lows not seen since 2022. Hamstring and back issues played a role, yet he cleared 20 fantasy points in three of his final nine outings. A new coordinator in Declan Doyle arrives with much of the supporting cast intact. A healthy Jackson could again contend for the top fantasy score. Verdict: Bad season.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings: After nearly 20 fantasy points per game across his first five seasons, Jefferson hit that mark just once in 17 games during 2025. Poor quarterback play from J.J. McCarthy led to career lows in catch rate (59.6 percent), yards per route (2.01) and explosive play rate (14.3 percent), despite a target share above 30 percent. Kyler Murray's arrival brings a major upgrade at quarterback, and Jefferson's talent could restore his elite standing. Verdict: Bad season.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders: A quadriceps injury that cost seven games, paired with Jayden Daniels' own health woes, derailed McLaurin's year from the start. His target share fell to a career-low 13.9 percent, and he stayed under 15 fantasy points in eight of 10 games. However, his yards per route (2.56) and explosive play rate (18.4 percent) stayed near career norms (2.05 and 19.5 percent). New coordinator David Blough aims to increase his top receiver's involvement. Much depends on Daniels' recovery, but positives exist. Verdict: Bad season.

Kyler Murray, QB, Vikings: The landing spot with receivers like Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson suggests rebound potential, yet Murray's injury history raises flags. He has missed 30 games over five seasons due to various ailments, and last year he posted career lows in yards per attempt (6.0) and average depth of target (5.8 yards). While the situation looks favorable, recent patterns limit expectations for a clear top-10 return. Verdict: Bad sign.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars: As 2025's top disappointment, Thomas posted lower numbers alongside Trevor Lawrence (21.4 percent target share, 1.93 yards per route, 56.6 percent catch rate) than his 2024 marks with Mac Jones (31.5 percent, 2.76 and 67.5 percent), with further decline after Jakobi Meyers joined midseason. His skills suggest future WR1 upside, but the crowded Jacksonville offense makes him a volatile boom-or-bust option for 2026. Verdict: Bad sign.