Ryan O'Hanlon serves as a staff writer at ESPN.com and penned the book Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game's Analytics Revolution.

Gerald Skinner previously worked at NASA and authored studies such as The Galactic distribution of the 511 keV e+/e- annihilation radiation along with Antimatter in the universe and the PAMELA/FERMI/AMS anomaly.

In 2009 he shifted focus to soccer, a topic lighter than cosmic forces. With colleague Guy Freeman he published work in the Journal of Applied Statistics exploring what match outcomes reveal about team strength.

Their key insight stands out in academic writing. They argued that if scores accurately reflect team quality then cycles like Team A defeating Team B, Team B beating Team C and Team C topping Team A should never occur. They labeled these intransitive triplets.

Reviewing every triplet across World Cups from 1938 to 2006 they discovered 12 percent matched the forbidden pattern. While that number appears modest it exceeds the 25 percent rate expected under pure chance. World Cup results proved barely more reliable than random outcomes.

Disheartened the writers titled their study Are soccer matches badly designed experiments? They concluded that even under favorable assumptions the true best team held less than a one-in-three chance of lifting the trophy in prior events.

They proposed fixes such as enlarging goals to boost scoring and extend matches through repeated extra periods until a decisive margin emerges. Seventeen years on goals retain their size and extra time stays fixed at thirty minutes. What follows?

The US men's national team stands a real chance to claim the World Cup. NASA research backs that possibility.

Beyond mere possibility a review of tournament history yields firmer predictions. This piece explains why the USMNT will win in 2026.

Reason 1: The top FIFA-ranked side has never claimed the World Cup

FIFA launched its ranking system in 1992 through Swiss researchers. Early versions relied solely on results without weighting opponents or stakes. Despite later refinements one pattern holds steady.

The number-one side has never won the tournament. France slipped from first to third after a loss to Ivory Coast in a pre-tournament friendly. Prior top-ranked teams include Brazil in 2022, Germany in 2018, Spain in 2014, Brazil in 2010 and Brazil in 2006. None reached the semifinals and two exited in the groups.

Argentina currently holds the top spot after recent shifts. The United States sits at number 17.

Eliminated team: Argentina

Reason 2: The latest Ballon d'Or recipient has never won the World Cup

France escaped ranking embarrassment yet built a system that regularly produces the planet's finest player. Since the Ballon d'Or began in 1956 its holder has never lifted the World Cup. Recent winners before tournaments were Ronaldinho in 2006, Lionel Messi in 2010, Cristiano Ronaldo in 2014 and 2018 plus Karim Benzema in 2022. Their teams all fell short.

The newest winner is Ousmane Dembele. No American has even received a nomination.

Eliminated team: France

Reason 3: A first-time entrant has never triumphed

Beyond the opening two tournaments won by Uruguay and Italy no debut nation has captured the title. That removes Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan and Uzbekistan. The United States enters its eleventh World Cup.

Eliminated teams: Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan, Uzbekistan

Reason 4: No playoff qualifier has ever won

Qualification matters. No side that advanced only via later playoff stages has ever succeeded. This removes Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Turkiye, Czechia, Congo DR and Iraq. The United States qualified automatically as host.

Eliminated teams: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Turkiye, Czechia, Congo DR, Iraq

Reason 5: No manager has won both the Premier League and the World Cup

Club success rarely translates directly. Only two coaches have taken both the Champions League and World Cup. None have combined a Premier League title with World Cup victory. Carlo Ancelotti is the sole manager present with a Premier League crown, eliminating Brazil. Mauricio Pochettino secured a Ligue 1 title yet earned no Premier League trophies.

Eliminated team: Brazil

Reason 6: No manager aged sixty or above has ever won the World Cup

The oldest successful coach was fifty-nine. This eliminates Scotland's Steve Clarke at sixty-two, South Africa's Hugo Broos at seventy-four, Austria's Ralf Rangnick at sixty-seven and others including Colombia's Nestor Lorenzo, the Netherlands' Ronald Koeman, Spain's Luis de la Fuente, Iran's Amir Ghalenoei, Uruguay's Marcelo Bielsa, Algeria's Vladimir Petkovic, Mexico's Javier Aguirre, Paraguay's Gustavo Alfaro, Belgium's Rudi Garcia and Ghana's Carlos Queiroz. Pochettino is fifty-four.

Eliminated teams: Scotland, South Africa, Austria, Colombia, Netherlands, Spain, Iran, Uruguay, Algeria, Mexico, Paraguay, Belgium, Ghana

Reason 7: The sole first-time champion since 1966 was a host

England in 1966 remains the only nation to claim its first major trophy via the World Cup since then. Non-hosts without prior World Cup or continental titles are removed unless they are hosts. This eliminates Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Ecuador, Haiti and Panama.

Eliminated teams: Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama

Reason 8: England has never won an international tournament away from home

England has never secured a major title on foreign soil. History offers the United States reassurance.

Eliminated team: England

Reason 9: No team ranked below eighteenth has won the World Cup

France in 1998 entered at eighteenth and remains the lowest-ranked winner. This removes New Zealand, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Canada, South Korea, Australia and Tunisia. The United States at seventeenth stays in contention.

Eliminated teams: New Zealand, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Canada, South Korea, Australia, Tunisia

Reason 10: No player over forty has ever won the World Cup

Dino Zoff at forty remains the oldest champion. Cristiano Ronaldo at forty-one leads Portugal and is removed. Tim Ream at thirty-eight becomes the oldest American participant.

Eliminated teams: Portugal

Reason 11: Every winner since 1982 has featured a player from Bayern Munich, AC Milan, Inter Milan or Liverpool

All eleven champions since 1982 included at least one player from those clubs.