US alerts Poland Russia may prepare military provocation

The United States has alerted Poland that Russia appears to be planning a military provocation against the country, drawing on sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki and reported by Polish outlet Onet.

A Polish ambassador to a NATO member state and a defense ministry source both confirmed the risk of such an action in Poland or a Baltic nation, the report noted.

The Telegraph, which covered the same story, indicated the provocation could occur within months and might involve missile or drone strikes on infrastructure or a ground incursion from Kaliningrad or Belarus.

The goal would be to pressure Poland's NATO partners into halting support for Ukraine.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated in April that Russia might strike a NATO country within months, a view echoed by Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski in remarks to CBS News.

Naval drills aim to deter Russian moves amid NATO uncertainty under Trump

Any incident could be attributed to GPS errors or a rescue flight, The Telegraph added via Onet, noting Russia's assumption that Polish troops would avoid engagement without prior talks due to US influence.

Russia would then seek an end to Western aid for Ukraine in exchange for withdrawal, viewing this as a win, the report stated.

European security officials suggested Russia sees higher strategic value in using Poland for such a provocation.

A recent NATO naval drill with US participation in Latvia was likely meant to discourage Russian action.

NATO could reply to any provocation by striking Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg, the Kola Peninsula, and the Black Sea, The Telegraph reported, quoting German Luftwaffe head Holger Neumann.

Poland shares borders with Russia, Belarus, and Kaliningrad, leaving it exposed to potential threats.

NATO summit next week to address Russia

NATO leaders will gather in Ankara on July 7 and 8 to discuss the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other matters. A draft text approved by ambassadors on Friday reaffirms commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

"An attack on one is an attack on all," the declaration states.

Article 5 requires all members to defend any ally under attack.

The text also describes Russia as a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security and stability.

US President Donald Trump has expressed recent doubts about NATO and in April floated the idea of US withdrawal from the alliance.

He is still expected at the summit, along with Nawrocki.