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Three instances demonstrating Ukrainian freedom of action in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.
Operation Molochka has already logged 183 strikes, Robert Brovdi reports.
The circumstances are starting to echo the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
The sealed Sea of Azov is becoming a resting place for ruined Russian vessels.
What follows next? Further intensification, forecasts an analyst from Odesa.
Will Ukrainians target the Crimean Bridge as well?
Map of the day: the route to the annexed peninsula remains vulnerable, despite assurances given to Putin.
Videos of the day: Operation Crimean Blackout and a strike on an FSB facility in Kherson region.

Three instances showing how Ukrainians operate freely in their coastal waters. The Ukrainian harbor of Zaliznyi in Kherson region, along the Black Sea shore, once attracted visitors as a resort destination. Yet after Russian troops seized it following the invasion, the area turned into something resembling an abandoned settlement. Its shores lie empty while the front remains close by.

Just days earlier, however, a notable mission unfolded there, highlighting how Ukrainian units have repeatedly hit Russian sites across the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.

In recent weeks, together with assaults on supply centers and refineries far inside Russian territory, attention has also turned to targeting the so-called shadow fleet that moves sanctioned Russian oil or supplies it to Crimea.

Both bodies of water have therefore started to mirror conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, rendered impassable amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and triggering a steep climb in global oil costs.

Returning to the mission near Zaliznyi Port, a cluster of Ukrainian Barracuda uncrewed vessels neared the harbor, each loaded with FPV strike drones prepared for launch, as captured in footage from the 40th Separate Marine Brigade.

In a defensive action that Russian forces themselves publicized, they eliminated one of these Ukrainian craft. Yet it required four Lancet drones, each valued at around $50,000, to achieve that result. The marines noted that this effort still failed to halt the Ukrainian mission.

The surviving Barracuda uncrewed vessels reached the Russian drone launch point, hitting supply lines and personnel of Russian forces in the vicinity for the first time in this manner.

Elsewhere in the Black Sea, this time close to the Russian harbor of Novorossiysk, an SBU Ukrainian naval suicide drone, the Mamai, closed in on the Russian tanker Avero, which belongs to Russia shadow fleet.

Soon after, the fourth large Suezmax-class tanker within ten days sustained damage. These vessels transport substantial quantities of oil and refined products. (see video)

Mamai represents one of two known naval drone models fielded by the SBU in the Black Sea, alongside the Sea Baby. The latter featured, for instance, in the strike on the Crimean Bridge two years earlier.

Military intelligence agency HUR operates its own Magura V5 drone in parallel.

These Ukrainian creations have played a major role in driving Russian sailors from the Black Sea and altering the power balance there, even in the absence of a conventional navy.

The Mamai drone takes its name from the storied Ukrainian folk character Mamai, a Cossack thinker. Ukraine security service states it currently ranks as the swiftest craft on the Black Sea, able to attain speeds reaching 110 km/h.

And third, a mission that likely concerned Vladimir Putin directly. One of Ukraine naval drones eliminated a Russian patrol craft last Tuesday near the Black Sea resort of Gelendzhik.

The resort, as The Wall Street Journal observed, lies close to a lavish estate identified by the slain Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, who connected it to Putin.

According to Ukrainian reports, the Russian vessel Emerald was struck there by a Sargan-3000 naval drone. Several crew members perished while others suffered wounds. A satellite image depicting the ship divided into two sections verifies the outcome.

Source: Ukrainian Navy

This was no minor craft. It measured 60 metres in length, featured its own helipad and fell under the protection of Russia FSB security service. Per the WSJ, the strike supplies further proof that Ukrainian naval drones are assisting Kyiv in securing greater command over the Black Sea.

Operation Molochka has already recorded 183 strikes. Ukrainians also hit the Russian tankers Louise 1 and Banda with Mamai drones amid the continuing Operation Molochka, as designated by Robert Magyar Brovdi, head of the Unmanned Systems Forces.

He noted that since the operation opened on 6 July, a total of 183 vessels from Russia shadow fleet had been struck - 119 in the Sea of Azov and 64 in the Black Sea. The figures appear on a dedicated site.

The night leading into Monday (20 July) ranked among the more productive: three tankers and four cargo ships joined the tally.

The designation Molochka carries a concealed significance. It stems from the abbreviation MLChK - Moskva lyazhe cherez Krym (Moscow will fall via Crimea).

As Magyar explained, the goal of the methodical strikes on Russian supply routes in both the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea is to disrupt all oil and fuel movements and block evasion of Western sanctions, which heavily influences the Russian budget.

According to Radio Svoboda, the Russians are already reacting by planning to place three soldiers aboard each vessel, arming them with twin machine guns, portable missile systems and anti-aircraft drones.

Thus far, however, this measure has not deterred Ukrainians from sustaining the campaign, which has among other effects produced a serious fuel shortage in Russia and especially in occupied Crimea, where a litre of petrol now costs 280 roubles - more than 3 euros - and power outages have turned routine.

Per Magyar, strikes on Russian ferries have removed up to 75 percent of the capacity of the Kerch ferry service, which handled cargo and passengers. Before the operation started, the ferries could, according to the Kyiv Independent, move 180 to 250 vehicles daily, roughly 80 percent of which supported the Russian military.

The loss of tankers itself poses serious difficulties for Moscow. More than 100 tankers have already burned. Russia possesses many tankers, yet the total is finite. If a dozen are sunk or damaged each day, supplies will eventually dwindle, transport specialist Maksym Gardus told Radio Svoboda.

The circumstances closely parallel those in Hormuz. Yet strikes have also affected the Ukrainian side, chiefly impacting foreign civilian vessels. Ten sailors died in an attack on the Golden Leo, a vessel owned by a Turkish firm. It was transporting maize from the port of Odesa.

Ukraine campaign against Russia shadow fleet has naturally attracted international rebuke. Kazakhstan has directly faulted Kyiv for the strikes, warning Ukrainians of sanctions and legal action.

During the strikes of 19 July, Ukrainian drones struck the tankers Asia and Nissos Ios while they loaded Kazakh oil at the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported. The terminal manages 80 percent of Kazakhstan oil, compelling the government to pursue other pathways.

As Bloomberg reported, intense Russian counter-strikes on merchant vessels and port facilities - and likewise on the Ukrainian side - are also endangering the global grain trade. Russia renewed attacks this summer on grain ports in Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi. The port of Izmail on the Danube has long featured among its targets.

Yet the threatened routes also impact Russia itself.

International wheat prices stand at their highest in recent years, and maize prices are climbing as well, although conditions have not yet reached the severity seen in 2022 after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Combined with threatened supplies of fertiliser and fuel due to events in the Strait of Hormuz, plus the influence of El Nino, the risk of a major food crisis emerges.

If Russian authorities fail to clear the Sea of Azov militarily and conditions persist through most of the second half of the year, Russia may be unable to deliver five to 10 million tonnes of wheat to the global market, according to expert Andrei Sizov, cited by Reuters.

Billions hang in the balance. According to Sizov, roughly 25 percent of Russian wheat exports travel through the Sea of Azov.

And the Black Sea functions in the wheat market much as the Persian Gulf does in the oil market. The Black Sea is clearly the foremost supplier of wheat to the global market, the expert told CNN, which likened the situation in these waters to the Strait of Hormuz.

Nevertheless, the regional picture must be separated, according to Odesa-based military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko. The blockade of the Sea of Azov, which he described as fully sealed, differs from the Black Sea, where Russia retains greater flexibility.

I would not equate it to the Strait of Hormuz, because these represent two distinct scales, Kovalenko told Dennik N.

Far more vessels have been struck in the Sea of Azov over the past week than occurred in Hormuz.

The Sea of Azov has become a sea of dead ships, because there are now more than 100 - according to some reports, more than 150 - damaged vessels there that require removal and drift without control at sea. Moreover, Russian shipping along the entire Azov coast, from Taganrog to Temryuk, is vanishing entirely, he said.

The situation in the Black Sea differs somewhat, since it is less enclosed than the Sea of Azov and cannot be sealed with equal ease.

In the Black Sea, Russians enjoy more space to operate and can employ, for example, Turkey exclusive economic zone to evade Ukrainian strikes. They attempt to shift swiftly into Turkish waters and airspace, and we cannot hit Russian targets there, because these already constitute the borders of another country, which we observe, the Ukrainian analyst clarified.

According to him, the balance of strikes by each side differs sharply. For Russia, these consist of sporadic attacks using Shahed suicide drones, as well as combat aircraft and even missile strikes. Ukraine, including with FPV strike drones, hits many more targets each day.

According to the Financial Times, the tempo of Ukrainian strikes in the Sea of Azov far exceeds that of the tanker conflict between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, when both parties targeted vessels from various nations in the Persian Gulf more than 450 times across seven years.

This situation is entirely without precedent, analyst Tomas Alexa told the US newspaper. We have never witnessed anything comparable on such a scale globally.

What follows next. Kovalenko believes Ukrainians will not pause soon, and that no outcome other than intensified fighting is realistic. In his assessment, a total blockade of the Sea of Azov will stop Russia from sustaining cargo flows there and directly resupplying Crimea and the occupied mainland portion of Ukraine, for instance through the ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk.

Port facilities overall will cease functioning, he said, and this will generate enormous economic damage for the Kremlin, especially from the loss of ferries.

It means being unable to resupply Crimea and the temporarily occupied mainland portion of Ukraine by sea. This will markedly degrade conditions for both the peninsula and Russian forces on the mainland. And economic damage matters greatly to us in terms of its effect on Russia, Kovalenko said.

He is certain that no outcome other than escalation is feasible. Until we fully remove Russia tanker fleet in the Sea of Azov from service, we will keep applying pressure on the Black Sea fleet and step up strikes with both naval and aerial drones. Russia will, naturally, attempt to affect the situation by striking vessels bound for the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk, specifically in Odesa region, but overall it will not match the scale we are now achieving, Kovalenko said.