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A fuel shortage unlike any Russia has faced before: drone strikes have reversed two decades of progress.
A potential turning point for Putin regime? Economist Milov foresees Russia forced to import gasoline like other nations.
Nine nations alongside Ukraine launch an antiballistic partnership: they aim to field an affordable alternative to scarce Patriot interceptors without delay.
Map of the day: two settlements near Sloviansk were declared fully captured yet Ukrainian forces continue to hold ground.
Videos of the day: strikes on military supply lines in Crimea and fresh training systems for F-16 crews.

A fuel shortage unlike any Russia has faced before. In 2014 the late US senator John McCain described Russia as a gas station pretending to be a country, pointing to an economy reliant on raw energy exports without meaningful reform or innovation. By summer 2026 Ukrainian observers liken the nation to an empty fuel container.

A sustained drone campaign targeting major refineries and storage sites has triggered a nationwide fuel emergency that reaches from Crimea to Omsk and touches at least fifty million residents, or thirty-five percent of the population, according to recent Financial Times estimates.

The most recent strike early Tuesday damaged the Gazprom Neftekhim facility in Salavat, Bashkortostan, roughly thirteen hundred kilometres from the front. Following multiple blasts a fire erupted at one of Russia largest petrochemical complexes. In 2024 the plant processed 7.2 million tonnes of crude, about 2.7 percent of national refining capacity. Besides petrol and diesel it yields kerosene, ammonia and urea, the Moscow Times reported.

Another blaze struck the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Two days earlier processing at Rosneft Syzran plant halted after Ukrainian forces struck the primary distillation unit AVT-5, rated at seventy-one hundred tonnes daily. Repairs are projected to last until month end, Reuters and The Insider indicated.

The combined effect has created a daily petrol shortfall of up to forty-five thousand tonnes. By late June sales limits covered eighty-eight of eighty-nine regions under Russian control, sparing only Chukotka. Conditions continue to worsen rapidly.

Refinery throughput has fallen to the lowest mark since March 2005. Over the past month Russia averaged 3.91 million barrels per day, a decline of 1.4 million barrels from the prior year, Bloomberg data show.

A potential turning point for Putin regime? Polish analysts at OSW note that Moscow appears unable to contain the crisis. Key consequences include:

Crimea isolated without fuel and parts of the peninsula without power for twelve days;
farm margins and summer road repairs threatened as wholesale diesel prices for haulers climb seventy-five point eight percent and bitumen costs rise forty-five point five percent;
diesel exports curtailed and petrol imports expanded;
lower-grade fuel now sold that harms modern engines;
opinion surveys showing Putin support at its weakest point in five years.

Russian economist Vladimir Milov told The Insider that nothing functions, flies or gets produced. He called the drone campaign a black swan event with lasting impact. OSW described the situation as the gravest fuel crisis since the Russian Federation was founded, with every major European refinery hit at least once and the Omsk plant in Siberia struck for the first time in early July, twenty-five hundred kilometres from the front.

No historical parallel exists. If strikes continue at the present pace, repairs cannot finish and stocks will keep shrinking, OSW warned. Recent attacks have focused on secondary processing units whose repair is complicated by the absence of Western parts.

Milov expects further deterioration, including outright petrol shortages that cannot be resolved quickly. Russia will essentially become a petrol importer like most countries, he stated. Yandex searches for homemade petrol recipes have already risen.

Seventy percent of Russian freight moves by road, so food prices will climb. The budget deficit reached six trillion roubles in the first five months and has since grown to nearly eight trillion roubles against a planned five trillion. Lower oil prices after the US-Iran truce have cut expected GDP growth from 1.3 percent to 0.1 percent. State media now describe rising fuel prices as merely changing.

The antiballistic partnership and Ukrainian Patriots. At the Paris summit of willing nations a new air-defence initiative was unveiled. Its urgency was underscored by a Russian drone and ballistic missile barrage on Kyiv that struck a boarding school yet caused no casualties after five of eight ballistic missiles were intercepted.

UN figures show Russian strikes killed at least 265 civilians and wounded 1816 in June, the highest monthly toll since early 2022. Ballistic missiles remain Moscow primary remaining advantage, President Zelensky noted, and Ukraine lacks sufficient interceptors.

Zelensky requested one hundred Patriot missiles monthly, or three hundred for winter. The antiballistic group, comprising France, Britain, Germany, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and Ukraine, will develop the Freya missile programme. Initial units could appear this year and later integrate into European defence.

Freya builds on Ukrainian FP-7.x designs to offset shortages of PAC-2 GEM-T rounds, which are costly and scarce after recent Middle East fighting. Fire Point leads the project, which features an infrared seeker from Diehl of Germany. Partners include FP, Thales, HENSOLDT, Saab, Kongsberg, Weibel, Leonardo, MBDA, Eurosam, Safran and Destinus. Integration with NATO Link-16 is planned.

Map of the day

Despite Russian claims of full control, fighting persists in Malynivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka near Sloviansk, blogger Oleg Petrenko reported. Strikes on village centres indicate Ukrainian units retain positions.

Videos of the day

Ukraine unmanned systems command continues targeting logistics in Crimea. Drones struck an S-400 launcher near Kerch and a Pantsir-S1 near Osovyn. Commander Brovdi stated the goal is to isolate the peninsula remotely without endangering Ukrainian troops or striking the Kerch bridge, forcing Russian forces to withdraw across it.

New simulators for F-16 pilots. After recent successful intercepts of Russian Su-35 fighters by F-16s, new mobile simulators tailored for Ukrainian scenarios arrived. Defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov thanked the Netherlands, Czechia and Austria for the systems.

Equipment losses

Unchanged on Tuesday.

Russia has lost 23837 pieces of heavy equipment (previously 23806). Ukrainians destroyed 18815 (previously 18785), damaged 993 (992), crews abandoned 1199 and Ukrainian forces captured 2830. This includes 4427 tanks, of which 3329 were destroyed.