Regardless of the reading date, farmers across Europe frequently mobilize their tractors in public demonstrations against various policies. Triggers often include fuel price hikes, competition from lower-cost imports from developing markets, strict European phytosanitary rules, or reductions in CAP funding, the bloc's Common Agricultural Policy. The CAP stands as one of the most complex frameworks, now facing an additional challenge with the potential accession of Ukraine and Moldova.

Setting aside areas lost to the Russian invasion such as Crimea and parts of the Donbas, Ukraine retains 32 million hectares of agricultural land, with 26 million already cultivated. This equals twice France's arable area of 17 million hectares and three times the totals for Spain and Poland at 11 million each, per World Bank data. Upon joining, Ukraine would lead the EU in cereal and oilseed output including rapeseed, sunflower, and soybeans.

Moldova adds a smaller scale with 1.87 million hectares. Its accession path has largely aligned with Ukraine's, gaining from the geopolitical push of Kyiv's application yet subject to independent evaluations. It also inherits some of the related concerns tied to the larger candidate.

The agriculture section ranks among the toughest elements in EU accession talks, notes researcher Elsa Régnier in a 2024 SciencesPo analysis. This stems from the CAP's major share of the EU budget and farming sector vulnerabilities. The European Commission notes that Ukraine and Moldova will require time and resources, while the EU must adapt policies like the CAP for a larger union.

More challenging than the war or the Holodomor? I doubt it. We will adjust, remarks Volodymyr Rever, a farmer from Lviv in western Ukraine. Like many others, he has endured dual roles as victim and defender amid the conflict on their productive lands.

Ukrainian soil ranks among the world's most fertile, known as chernozem or black earth for its dark hue from organic buildup called humus, the key nutrients supporting plant growth, according to Mykhailo Mulenko, a researcher at the Khortytsia National Reserve.

In central Ukraine zones, the humus layer can extend to one metre deep, an exceptional feature, Mulenko adds. This thickness aids resistance to intensive modern farming methods while sustaining productivity.

Much has shifted since the invasion's start, when Russian advances from north and south appeared overwhelming. Russian vessels then blockaded Odesa port, handling over 80 percent of Ukraine's farm exports; strikes hit processing facilities in Kharkiv; and attacks targeted fields and equipment in Chernihiv and Sumy. Mines polluted land in traversed regions.

Yet advances were stopped, and Ukraine kept Odesa port operational, developed alternative sea and rail export paths with help from nations like Romania and Poland, preserved seeds and yields, and restructured logistics and fuel networks. It resembles another battle line: bread holds sacred value, and planting symbolizes life. One cannot grasp what this means to Ukrainians who endured two world wars and a famine, states Roman Leshchenko, former Ukrainian agrarian policy and food minister.

This extends past the soil's unique fertility, notes Yves Le Morvan, supply chain head at France's Agrillées think tank. Ukraine possesses strong human resources plus durability in its logistics, trade, and processing systems, he observes.

These steps already triggered frictions with nearby states. Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia imposed import restrictions on Ukrainian goods. Dănuț Andruș, a farmer whose image symbolized Romanian protests with tractors blocking Bucharest roads, once criticized Ukrainian competition. Now he shows less opposition to integration for Ukraine and Moldova. I do not view it favorably as it may unsettle markets, yet every nation deserves self-determination; if they follow the rules, I see no issue, he states.

This very risk of disruption from a major producer like Ukraine may offer the EU commission a chance for substantial CAP reform, a topic long under discussion.

The EU has completed seven enlargements, with the latest in 2007 for Romania and Bulgaria, and 2013 for Croatia. Among them, those with comparable geopolitical weight and farm effects, per Le Morvan, include the 1986 Iberian entry and the 2004-2007 Central European additions.

The 1986 expansion with Spain and Portugal grew EU farmland by 30 percent, while 2004-2007 added 44 percent. Including Ukraine, Moldova, and the Balkans would yield a 28 percent rise.

In 1986, adjustments via institutional prices and phased rollout sufficed. The 2004-2007 cases needed prior CAP overhaul, establishing area-based payments with gradual application to new members under standard frameworks. For the next round, minor CAP tweaks will fall short. Ukraine differs from Poland with its Soviet-era farm model featuring ownership patterns and business structures outside EU norms, the expert notes.