Meeting EU goals for heat pumps, solar and wind could reduce gas demand by about a quarter by 2030, a cut twice as large as the LNG volumes Qatar might supply to Europe by that time, according to fresh analysis from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

Strengthening the continent's ability to handle energy supply threats holds strategic value amid rising tensions in the Middle East and interruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz that impact the EU.

For Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst for Europe at IEEFA, depending on uncertain and costly LNG deliveries from nations such as Qatar does not offer a reliable path for the EU.

LNG supplies to Europe from Qatar and other Gulf producers depend on a mix of long-term bilateral contracts, which specialists caution bring dual risks: committing Europe to decades of fossil fuel reliance even as gas demand falls, while delivering less supply and price stability than expected since buyers stay tied to volatile global markets and uncertain long-term demand for the gas they have agreed to buy.

The Strait of Hormuz situation illustrates why Europe cannot keep relying on imported fossil fuels, said Makarewicz.

Gas use fell by 20 percent between 2021 and 2024, driven in part by fast growth in renewables.

Clean energy technologies are already addressing this issue. Every heat pump, solar panel and wind turbine installed protects Europe from the next crisis, Makarewicz said.

The European Commission introduced the Electrification Action Plan earlier this month on 17 July, setting an electrification target of 46 percent by 2040.

Currently, 70 percent of EU electricity comes from domestic clean sources including solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal and local biomass, yet the electrification rate of energy demand has remained at 23 percent over the past decade.

EU reliance on LNG

The Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022 caused an 84 percent rise in EU imports of liquefied natural gas, reaching record levels between 2021 and 2025, according to IEEFA.