China's capacity to launch military strikes on Australia will rise sharply over the next decade, though the nearest dangers involve cyberattacks and the severing of undersea communications cables, according to a Monday report from the Lowy Institute.

The Sydney-based think tank noted that a long-range stealth bomber now in development, plus possible stationing of missiles and aircraft at bases nearer Australia, could quickly heighten the longer-term risk.

"China has actively sought basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018. Any such base would bring central Australia within bomber combat range and allow attacks to be mounted more frequently," the report stated.

Short-term threats do not need conventional arms, since China holds strong tools to disrupt Australian maritime trade at chokepoints in the Indonesian archipelago.

The report added that China can already hit northern Australia with missiles based at its South China Sea outposts.

The Chinese embassy in Australia has not yet replied to a request for comment.

Diplomatic Ties Across the Pacific

China ranks as Australia's top trading partner, handling nearly one-third of its exports. Relations worsened after 2018 amid several disputes that prompted Beijing to sanction Australian goods, yet ties have strengthened since the Labor government took office in 2022.

Australia nevertheless remains alert to China's rising profile in the Pacific, pursuing its own security pacts with island nations to block any lasting Chinese military presence. The southern Pacific has long been viewed as falling within the sphere of Australia and its ally, the United States.

"China's military build-up is reshaping the Indo-Pacific balance of power in ways that affect Australian security regardless of China's ability to strike Australian territory," the Lowy Institute said.

Among Pacific nations, the Solomon Islands are seen by analysts as holding the closest links to Beijing after a 2022 security pact that drew US concern and stepped up Australian diplomacy.

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale, during an official visit to Australia earlier this month, said his country would pursue a comprehensive strategic treaty with Australia and review the China security agreement.