10 July 2026

Fighting between the United States and Iran has flared up once more. Washington has verified strikes on sites inside Iran, while Tehran has hit American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Just before these events, commercial vessels came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has declared the ceasefire deal finished. Press outlets across Europe are now assessing the chances of further escalation.

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Der Standard comments:

“No one should be shocked that the ceasefire in the Persian Gulf has collapsed. The uncertainties that could restart hostilities at any time are built into the vague wording of the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran. Even if escalation can be halted now, it will not be the final incident.”

Neither side seeks a drawn-out clash, the NRC observes, and notes:

“This points to talks resuming eventually. Yet trust will be lower than before. Both extremes of open war or pure diplomacy would prove hard for Trump to handle. As a result, US-Iran ties will probably settle somewhere in between.”

Naftemporiki sees limited options for Washington:

“As fuel and grocery costs rise across the US, Republican chances in the 3 November mid-term elections grow worse. Trump cannot risk another war. Tehran knows this weakness and is using it to pressure him. Washington does not decide when matters end; the mullahs do. They control the pace, and Trump follows. Military strength alone cannot topple the regime in Tehran. While Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz with drones and missiles as leverage, the mullahs set the conflict's scope.”

Dagens Nyheter notes a deadlock:

“Tehran understands that full war costs too much for Donald Trump and that he avoids large ground operations needed to seize the Strait of Hormuz or secure enriched uranium. Hours after ending the ceasefire, Trump stated he doubts a major war will return. Iran is weakened economically and militarily. Still, the regime keeps the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian people under tight control.”

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung observes that the new Iranian leadership faces ongoing challenges:

“The Tehran regime feels it has won by surviving the fight with the American superpower. Massive crowds at the funeral of revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei showed the theocracy's strength. Yet after his burial on Thursday, the Islamic Republic must still fight to endure. It lacks support from most citizens. This issue may grow sharper under the new, little-known revolutionary leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.”

Salzburger Nachrichten faults the US President's approach to talks:

“Diplomacy needs more than meetings and written pacts; it requires some level of trust. Trump weakens this base by calling the Iranian regime 'scum' and 'liars'. No matter one's view of Tehran, public insults of a negotiating partner block diplomatic progress. That is basic diplomacy.”

The Economist believes Iran may soon return to talks despite its statements:

“Two factors could limit Iran's military leaders. First is military fact. Recent US strikes show the war and talks have yielded no clear result. Iran's Gulf neighbors now seem readier to back a firmer US stance. They urge European and Chinese partners to press Tehran while noting their own past secret actions against Iran and their readiness to act again. Second is the economy. After funeral crowds fade, Iran will still face a weak and cut-off economy.”