John McCain once described Russia as a filling station. We are emptying that tank completely, observed Ukrainian analyst Olexandr Kovalenko.

Moscow now confronts intense strain on its energy systems. Could this mark a decisive shift? What lies ahead for the conflict in Ukraine?

These issues were posed to military specialist Olexandr Kovalenko based in Odesa.

He noted that Ukraine must seize its current opening before Russia drafts hundreds of thousands more troops through fresh mobilisation drives over the next several months.

Do recent events signal a turning point?

Indeed, notable shifts appear underway in the combat zone driven by multiple elements. Primary among them is the depletion of Russian units. From 2023 onward Ukraine has evidently reduced them to a state where Moscow relies chiefly on infantry. Human resources now form the core challenge from the opposing side.

Ukraine adopted a defensive approach in 2023 after Russian advances near Avdiivka combined with the congressional aid freeze that withheld support for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel over six months. This produced an ammunition shortfall forcing Kyiv into a defensive stance aimed at holding positions while also slowing and wearing down the adversary.

Why has this phase emerged only recently?

The effort coincides with enemy fatigue and Ukraine's acquisition of technological superiority. Central to this are medium-range drone systems and expanded strikes on Russian supply routes. The large concentration of occupation troops, now mostly infantry, faces severe constraints from inadequate and delayed logistics.

Targeting battlefield supplies serves to halt Russian advances and erode their defensive capacity. In several areas Russian defences already show signs of strain creating openings for Ukrainian counter-moves.

Which systems drive these operations?

Medium-range and deeper missions rely primarily on Hornet, RAM-2X, Darts, Bulava drones along with related variants. Hornets rank among the most common platforms.

How does AI factor in? Has it elevated Ukrainian effectiveness?

Artificial intelligence proves valuable amid Russian electronic warfare and signal loss. It enables drones to function independently, choose targets and complete missions without operator input. This capability has markedly boosted strike success rates beyond current Russian levels and forms a core element of Ukraine's technological progress.

How vital are intelligence contributions from Western agencies?

They play a critical role by aiding operational planning and confirming details on specific sites such as drone training schools, production facilities or storage depots. For warehouses verification covers contents including munitions, fuel or other materials.

Is there an overarching plan behind strikes on Russian urban areas?

Ukraine targets production sites and infrastructure within cities rather than urban centres themselves. These include refineries, arms plants, equipment factories, research centres, fuel depots and logistics nodes. The focus remains on dismantling elements of Russia's industrial and military base.

"Ukraine pursues the phased elimination of key Russian industrial sectors including oil refining, defence manufacturing and chemicals"

What stands as the central goal?

Top priority is the total elimination of Russia's oil-refining capacity. Parallel efforts target the military-industrial base. Many nominally civilian firms supply it with components such as chemical materials. Strikes on chemical facilities can therefore be warranted when outputs support rocket propellant, explosives or munitions production. The overall approach involves systematic degradation of Russian oil refining, defence industry, chemicals and scientific research institutes developing new weapons.

Who leads the campaign against Russian targets?

No single individual directs the effort. It reflects coordinated work by defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Kyrylo Budanov, presidential administration officials and Robert Brovdi known as Madyar who commands the Unmanned Systems Forces. General staff, intelligence and security services all contribute to a collective strategy that exhausts Russia both at the front and in the rear. Results are already evident.

Why can Russian air defence not respond effectively? Are stocks of missiles dwindling?