US President Donald Trump is undertaking a landmark trip to China, one that could reshape global dynamics. Both nations are expressing interest in finding common ground on key issues to prevent escalation and confrontation. As a burgeoning superpower, China contrasts with perceptions of a waning US influence, potentially setting the stage for tensions. Yet, the trajectories of both powers remain unpredictable. Consequently, these summits carry substantial weight for Middle Eastern affairs.

China is steadily expanding its footprint in the Middle East, proceeding with deliberate restraint to avoid entanglement in disputes. Consider these five factors explaining why the US-China discussions are pivotal for the region:

China's Growing Presence in the Middle East

China has gradually amplified its involvement across the region. This includes deploying naval forces in recent times and facilitating dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Such efforts underscore Beijing's aim to promote stability. While it has historically shied away from hotspots like Syria, China has deepened engagements in the Gulf through strategic alliances and economic ventures.

Beijing's stance remains nuanced: primarily economic, or poised for military dimensions? For years, China cultivated strong bonds with Israel, including significant investments. Washington watched these developments warily. Lately, however, Beijing's rhetoric toward Jerusalem has sharpened. This shift highlights Israel's evolving strategy, moving away from exclusive Western partnerships toward Russia and China.

As China advances its regional agenda, it prioritizes economic ties with frameworks like BRICS and the SCO, alongside its alignment with Russia. Geopolitically, Beijing emerges as a key player, bolstered by robust links with Pakistan and prospective deepening relations with Saudi Arabia, Syria, and others.

China's Mediation Efforts Involving Iran

Over the past decade, China has forged tighter connections with Iran, highlighted by a proposed 25-year cooperation pact, though much of it stalled. Beijing appeared hesitant, mindful of Iran's risks to regional calm. Critical of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, China now offers President Xi Jinping an opportunity to collaborate with Trump on Iran-related accords. Reports indicate agreements on denying Iran nuclear capabilities and ensuring Strait of Hormuz access, per White House remarks cited in Arab News.

Xi noted progress in trade discussions early in the two-day summit, cautioning that Taiwan disputes could derail ties. China might emerge as a pivotal mediator, echoing the US role in the early 1900s. The Treaty of Portsmouth, which concluded the 1904-1905 Russo-Japanese War with US mediation on September 5, 1905, serves as a potential blueprint.

Spotlight on China-Israel Dynamics

The Iran conflict, erupting February 28, prompted analysis of its impact on China. A swift Iranian collapse would affirm US-Israeli supremacy, alarming nations like Saudi Arabia. Iran's resilience allows Beijing to observe unfolding events. China-Israel relations, once warmer, soured around 2021, coinciding with Beijing's support for Saudi-Iran reconciliation.

China remains detached from Israel. On May 12, Ynet reported Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun dismissing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's allegations of Beijing aiding Iran's missile efforts. Netanyahu, in a CBS '60 Minutes' interview, claimed China supplied components but offered no details before the Trump-Xi summit.

Beijing scrutinizes Israel akin to its view of the US, recognizing their deepening military collaboration. Israel pursued non-Western partnerships from 2015 to 2023, but post-October 7 shifts abound. Ties with India - a Chinese rival - South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, and Central Asian states persist. China admires Israel's tech prowess while monitoring its alignments.

China's Expanding Gulf Ties

Amid the protracted Iran tensions, China's Gulf connections, especially with Saudi Arabia, prove advantageous. Viewed as a stabilizing investor, China contrasts with US-led disruptions. Saudi Arabia, a US ally since the 1930s, now diversifies amid 21st-century uncertainties.

Gulf outlets track Trump's China itinerary closely. Reports suggest the conflict accelerates China's regional sway. An Associated Press dispatch revealed Kuwait accusing Iran of a failed strike this month on a Chinese-built port island, timed just before Trump's Beijing departure to address Iran and beyond. This signals to China that Iranian actions threaten equilibrium, prompting Tehran to reposition as a stabilizer.

Potential Gains for China in Trade and Arms

A South China Morning Post piece before Trump's arrival highlighted US munitions depletion bolstering China's leverage. The narrative emphasizes America's heavy expenditure in the Iran campaign, which China observes keenly. Absent a decisive US victory, Beijing sees opportunities in prolonged engagement.

Nevertheless, China prioritizes uninterrupted trade and oil flows. US and Iranian blockades of the Strait of Hormuz jeopardize these, underscoring Beijing's stakes alongside Tehran's.

Traditionally land-focused, China has rapidly built naval capabilities, including shipbuilding. Iran's geography limits overland routes to underdeveloped neighbors and challenging Central Asian paths. Maritime outlets via the Gulf are vital. Disruptions in the Red Sea and Hormuz have spurred China to reassess its global maritime posture.