Good morning. Within two hours of arriving at No 10 on Monday afternoon, Andy Burnham held his first discussion with Donald Trump. After light talk about football (both praised England’s strong showing) and Manchester (the new prime minister suggested a visit to the city once called a town by the president), they turned to the more delicate issue of the strait of Hormuz.

The US has struck Iran for the eleventh night running, targeting aircraft hangars and drone facilities nationwide. The move followed Iranian counterattacks on American bases and Gulf neighbors, which blame Tehran for hitting vital desalination plants. Both sides now assert they are blocking the other from dominating the strait of Hormuz, a route that carried 20 percent of global oil before fighting erupted. Ships loaded with oil, gas and fertilizer sit idle.

Operation Epic Fury began as a bid for regime change. Its goals have since shifted toward reopening the strait and repairing harm from the US and Israel’s initial strikes. The president misread Iran’s ability to absorb pressure and is now seeking an exit through further bombing. For today’s First Edition, I spoke with Vali Nasr, professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies and author of Iran’s Grand Strategy, about the struggle over this vital chokepoint. Details follow the headlines.

Five big stories

UK politics | Andy Burnham faces growing questions over funding for his promises while urging his cabinet to explore every option for easing the cost of living crisis.
UK news | A man appeared in court accused of murdering former MP and Reform UK spokesperson Ann Widdecombe. Joshua Kerry, 28, is charged with killing the ex-Conservative minister at her Devon home by striking her head with a hammer 21 times.
Middle East | US defense secretary Pete Hegseth informed the Senate that the US-Israel campaign against Iran has already cost 37.5 billion dollars, drawing anger from lawmakers over rising expenses and the deaths of three American troops last week.
Climate crisis | Roughly 23 million people will face hosepipe bans by the weekend as England and Wales edge toward drought conditions.
Ukraine | Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Ukraine’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi and proposed a senior role for the defense minister removed last week, a step that prompted widespread protests.

In depth: In his mind this was a legacy-building transformation

Donald Trump assured voters on election night in 2024 that he would not launch wars. His choice to bomb Iran on 28 February alongside Benjamin Netanyahu surprised many with its boldness and clear departure from that pledge. Trump made no preparations for conflict, gave little thought to Iran possibly seizing the strait under attack, and offered shifting reasons for the action. Early on he pointed to events in Venezuela as a template. He believed he would be remembered as the leader who settled the Iran issue, Nasr told me. He viewed it as a swift, painless achievement that would define his place in history.

The calculation has backfired. Pete Hegseth, the US self-styled secretary of war, claimed initial strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had removed the head of the snake. Regime change now appears remote. Trump misjudged both the Iranian leadership’s staying power and the strength of domestic opposition. After five months the venture is as unpopular at home as the Vietnam war was after six years. It risks widening into a broader regional fight, with the Houthis threatening a shipping blockade against Saudi Arabia. Even Trump, whose company is developing a tower in Dubai, cannot escape the fallout.

What happened to the ceasefire?

The memorandum of understanding, a brief and loosely worded text signed by the US and Iran on 17 June, paused strikes and launched a 60-day talks window on issues including the strait’s future. It collapsed after Iran targeted three commercial tankers using a lane near Oman instead of the route Tehran had approved. When ceasefires break, Nasr notes, parties can either defend the pause or treat the breach as grounds to abandon it.

Trump chose the second path, labeling Iranian leaders scum and ending the pause earlier this month. This week energy secretary Chris Wright indicated the focus had moved to protecting oil flows through the strait. It is worth noting the waterway had never stayed shut for long before 28 February. The US now presents a return to prior conditions as success.

Iran and the US continue talks, with Tehran signaling interest in permanent control and tolls on vessels. The US faces a drawn-out conflict that would keep the strait closed or further escalation in hopes of forcing Iran’s collapse, Nasr says.

A serious misjudgment

Evidence suggests Trump and Netanyahu underestimated Iran’s readiness to control the strait. In an earlier interview Netanyahu conceded the Hormuz issue became clear only as fighting progressed. As diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour observed at the time, this amounted to a striking admission in a piece warning the venture’s costs could exceed those of Vietnam. Prior administrations and most Iran specialists would have weighed such a closure scenario.

The current US government has few remaining Iran specialists, as Trump has favored loyalists instead. Nate Swanson, a former state department member of the Iran team, departed earlier this year after activist Laura Loomer questioned his allegiance.

Those familiar with the Iranian system would have warned Trump that its leaders are not New York businessmen and operate differently, Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute told Guardian US correspondent Robert Tait.

Consequences, consequences

Oil-driven inflation is raising daily costs and increasing government borrowing expenses, including for Burnham in the UK. Without agreement by 2027 some forecasts point to a global growth drop of 1.3 percent or more. Europe appears especially vulnerable: since the Russia-Ukraine conflict it has relied more on Middle East gas, notably from Qatar, where output has slowed amid the fighting. A winter of shortages looms, echoing the 1970s energy crisis when Britain imposed power cuts.

Who’s in charge of the sea?

Many of Trump’s suggested fixes appear improvised. He floated the idea of US tolls for safe passage, despite prior statements from European leaders and his own secretary of state Marco Rubio that such fees would breach international law. The very discussion of tolls by both sides highlights a shared disregard for global rules that marks this conflict. Iran, the US and Israel rank among the few nations that have not ratified the UN convention on the law of the sea. Freedom of navigation underpins international order; without it, shipping risks turning into a system of payments for protection.

Some analysts fear other routes could see increased militarization as coastal states observe Iran leverage the strait and seek similar advantages elsewhere. Nations that view themselves as comparable to Iran may treat passageways as deterrents, Nasr says. If countries like the US and Israel can strike at will, others will use any available means to defend themselves.

What else we’ve been enjoying

This thoughtful piece by Alice Lassman on how Gen Z has turned to AI for intimacy mirrors recent talks with younger friends. Libby
Ed Miliband aimed to drive a green energy shift in Britain. Now at the Foreign Office, what becomes of that effort? This piece by Fiona Harvey offers useful insights. Hettie
It is a crime that changes your entire reality. Anna Moore examines the effects of crime in this report on the survivor-led drive to end drug-facilitated sexual assault. Libby
If, like me, you find Meta’s new smartglasses unsettling because they let wearers record others without consent, this piece by Gaby Hinsliff is worth your time. Hettie
Herald writer Neil Mackay makes a strong case that the Scottish independence movement’s future hinges on Burnham’s performance in Westminster. Libby

Sport

Cycling | Remco Evenepoel claimed consecutive stage wins in the Tour de France, trimming Tadej Pogacar’s overall lead with victory in the stage 16 time trial from Evian to Thonon-les-Bains.

Tennis | The French Open became the first grand slam to share tournament revenue with players, marking progress in the prize-money debate.

Football | La Liga president Javier Tebas accused Fifa of harming the sport and urged its leader Gianni Infantino to step down.

The front pages

Burnham implores cabinet to find ways to tackle cost of living crisis is the Guardian’s headline today. The Times reports Burnham signals cuts to pay for spending pledges, while the i Paper leads with Cost of living, cost of living, cost of living. The Mail asks Who’s going to pay the bill for Andy’s largesse? and the FT notes Burnham backs away from rise in tax allowance to show fiscal discipline.

Elsewhere the Telegraph focuses on Pc Harper’s killers set for early release. The Mirror, Sun, Metro and Express all highlight court details with variations of Ann hit 21 times with hammer.

The Latest

US soldiers killed: has Trump lost control of Iran war?

The US launched another round of strikes on Iran after three American troops died in action. The Pentagon confirmed nearly 100 service members injured in the past two weeks as Tehran responded to ten straight nights of attacks, even while Pakistan-mediated peace talks continue. Lucy Hough speaks with senior international correspondent Julian Borger.

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Yotam Maron, a central figure in the Occupy Wall Street movement that grew into a global network in 2011, has supported many social causes since. He describes a politics of powerlessness that often weakens such efforts by confusing healthy skepticism of institutions with an inability to craft effective strategies for change. He later founded the Wildfire Project to train grassroots organizations against that flawed thinking and argues that, even with democratic socialists gaining ground in parts of the US, movements rather than elected officials must continue to drive people power.