Across much of the Middle East the announcement of a tentative accord between Washington and Tehran prompted cautious relief alongside skepticism that the arrangement would tackle the area longstanding troubles or block a return to conflict.

In Kuwait which endured repeated Iranian drone attacks during the 15-week fighting Iyad Joumma a 37-year-old Jordanian engineer captured the prevailing mood.

Although the pact might let the region pause for breath he noted its outcome hinges on whether the parties can confront the underlying sources of friction.

Among twelve specialists and commentators contacted by the Guardian after word of a possible halt to fighting emerged over the weekend none viewed the provisional accord due for signing on Friday as anything beyond a short-term fix.

It amounts to little more than a temporary patch with renewed clashes likely later said Neil Quilliam a Middle East specialist at Chatham House in London.

The understanding calls for a 60-day pause in fighting during which the sides will tackle key disputes including Iran stockpile of enriched uranium its nuclear activities sanctions relief and the unfreezing of billions in Iranian assets in hopes of reaching a comprehensive settlement.

Most observers see little chance of success on such a tight schedule if ever.

They recall the lengthy 18-month negotiations that produced the 2015 nuclear deal later abandoned by Donald Trump in his initial term.

The current interim pact mainly commits the parties to continued discussions while requiring Washington to end its naval blockade of Iran and Tehran to ensure open transit through the Strait of Hormuz a waterway that normally handles one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments but was closed by Iran at the outset of hostilities.

Despite Israeli objections a ceasefire has also been reinstated in Lebanon under the interim terms and appears to be holding for now.

Yet experts note such pauses carry limited weight these days citing Gaza where nearly 1000 Palestinians have died since Donald Trump helped end fighting there last year. Israel controls over 60 percent of the territory Hamas retains its arms and little headway has occurred toward a planned second phase let alone the third phase focused on large-scale rebuilding.

Gaza illustrates the shortcomings Alia Brahimi of the Atlantic Council in Washington observed. The arrangement ignored past war crimes the present need to disarm Hamas and the future requirement for a viable Palestinian state. Ceasefires can sometimes mask ongoing military objectives.

Such tactics however face limits in the Gulf because of differing strategic realities Brahimi added.

The Strait of Hormuz holds vital importance for the world economy as Iran has shown by demonstrating its capacity to disrupt global supply through strikes on tankers.

Mkhaimar Abusada a political science professor at al-Azhar University in Gaza now based in Cairo concurred.

The Gaza ceasefire persists because Hamas understands that renewed fire could trigger another major Israeli incursion yet conditions there remain dire he stated.

Inside Israel reactions include frustration over an accord that leaves Iran ballistic missile arsenal and support for its Axis of Resistance untouched. The coalition encompasses Hezbollah in Lebanon Hamas in Gaza the Houthis in Yemen and various Iraqi militias.

This omission risks fresh instability analysts contend.

Danny Orbach a military history professor at Hebrew University in Jerusalem noted that after the October 2023 Hamas assault Israel aimed for structural shifts in the region.

The desired change requires that the Axis of Resistance no longer pose an existential threat to Israel. Israeli policy will continue pressing neighbors that stability depends on resolving the Iran issue and this stance will endure until the memory of the 7 October attack recedes a process that may take years.

The greatest impact however is felt in the Sunni Arab Gulf states where decades of economic expansion and diplomatic influence now face serious tests.

Repairs to infrastructure damaged by Iranian strikes on Kuwait Bahrain the United Arab Emirates and Qatar will require months or years while psychological effects will linger longer. Washington reluctance to accept heavy losses or prolonged economic strain sends a clear signal.

A superpower unwilling to absorb 100 casualties cannot claim that status Orbach remarked.

H.A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute in London said Gulf nations will now try to manage a strengthened Iran under a more assertive leadership.

Consensus exists that reliance on the US is no longer viable yet Gulf states differ on the best path ahead Hellyer noted. The Arab world holds legitimate concerns about Iranian influence that remain unaddressed.

Quilliam spoke of a new era.

The present agreement will likely endure and positive headlines plus resumed oil and gas shipments may appear within 60 days but no major breakthrough is expected he said.

Hormuz can be shut again Iran has struck Gulf targets and previous limits have been crossed.