ByKEREN SETTON/THE MEDIA LINE

JUNE 10, 2026 10:52

Iran's network of allies and Israel's adversary stands at the heart of the turmoil shaking the Middle East and risking sudden escalation.

On Tuesday strains intensified after a round of clashes between Israel and Iran concluded under American pressure elevating the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group as a key regional actor.

US President Donald Trump swiftly urged Israel and Iran to halt their exchanges. Reports indicated a tense call between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that featured a warning from the American leader against providing support should Israel continue operations against the Islamic Republic.

The Trump administration has forged an entirely fresh and troubling situation Amatzia Baram a professor emeritus at the University of Haifa and specialist in Middle Eastern affairs told The Media Line. To placate Iran they are prepared to constrain Israel in Lebanon. Washington seeks this outcome more than the Lebanese government itself. This represents a serious error.

Israeli operations against Hezbollah over the weekend prompted a response from its backer Iran establishing a fresh dynamic. For years Israel viewed Hezbollah as its strongest adversary. Israel believed it had largely neutralized Hezbollah by late 2024 only to confront it anew as Iran deploys the group as a shield not through its own strength but by vowing strikes on Israel should it target its favored proxy.

Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel ceasefire breaches

The brief period during which Israel and Iran exchanged strikes on Monday concluded with an Iranian caution that it would respond more forcefully should Israel renew its actions in Lebanon.

Hezbollah initiated fire toward Israel two days after the combined American-Israeli operation against Iran started in March concluding with a truce a month later. Since that time Israel has persisted in targeting Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon reinforcing its hold on the region which Hezbollah views as a breach of the initial truce agreed in November 2024.

Hezbollah has replied by sustaining rocket and drone launches into northern Israel. Each side essentially breaches the truce while managing the intensity of violence and confining strikes to northern Israel and southern Lebanon keeping the Hezbollah bastion of the Dahieh district in Beirut beyond Israeli reach.

For under 24 hours the truce spiraled when Israel hit Hezbollah fighters in the Dahieh deep inside Lebanon. Iran vowed retaliation for such a move and carried it out.

In Israel the Iranian missile assault caused no casualties. Accounts from Iran likewise showed no losses.

The Iranian strike seems aimed at preserving dignity rather than imposing costs on Israel Dr. Menahem Merhavy a research fellow and Iran expert at the Harry S. Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem told The Media Line. The action freed Iran from a difficult spot.

Iran has failed to capitalize on what it sees as success against the US and Israel Merhavy added. Iran faces potential disaster and the loss of Hezbollah creates major concern for it.

Iran has directed events across the Middle East via multiple militant groups it has backed trained and equipped over years forming a ring of fire around Israel.

The ring of fire is now faltering said Merhavy. But Iran will not relinquish the concept and will not desert Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has been reduced to roughly half its prior capacity Baram said. Yet it retains notable fighting strength. Hezbollah focuses on restoring itself and although Iran faces challenges it continues aiding Hezbollah with funds arms and strategy by casting itself as its protector and rescuer.

Hezbollah was intended to assist Iran not the reverse Baram added. The US carries accountability for this outcome.

The conflict that began in October 2023 with a sudden assault by the Gaza-based Hamas group on Israel rapidly expanded into a wider regional struggle involving all of Iran's proxies. Israel's actions have steadily diminished that network leaving Iran vulnerable even prior to its initial direct clash with Israel in April 2024.

Irans recent strike and its swift indication that retaliation had ended signals its reluctance to pursue extended fighting since it lacks the resources Merhavy said.

Addressing reporters on Monday after both Iran and Israel ceased fire Netanyahu stated our contest with them continues referring to both Iran and Hezbollah.

Strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain limited and minor

They are more vulnerable than before he added while seeking to assure the public of Israel's advantage.

Israel avoided confronting Hezbollah from 2006 to 2023 for a single cause it feared the large missile and rocket stockpile would inflict severe harm on Israel Baram said. Now Israel does not hesitate to target Hezbollah due to damage potential but rather because Iran might intervene and the US might withhold backing if Israel chooses to reply.

On Tuesday the Israeli military was thought to have conducted a strike on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces did not verify this.

Netanyahu has often pledged to eliminate Hezbollah after the group aligned with Gaza-based Hamas in its campaign against Israel starting October 2023. Despite multiple conflicts and repeated clashes Israel has not fully removed Hezbollah's danger. Its fire targets mainly northern Israel severely affecting daily life there and generating widespread irritation.

Strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon are minor operational and hold little weight for Hezbollah's position in Lebanon said Baram.

Strikes on leadership centers arms caches and production sites in Beirut and areas north of Beirut reach a near strategic scale that can undermine Hezbollah and that should be Israel's focus going forward.

According to Merhavy the fresh arrangement may prove short-lived. Meanwhile Hezbollah remains highly vulnerable to Israeli actions.

Hezbollah can be hit throughout Lebanon but Beirut and Iran can do nothing in response he said. Israel has operated without restriction in Lebanon for months.

Apart from its military assets Hezbollah has established an extensive financial and community structure deeply tied to Lebanese society especially among the country's Shiite population.

Via aid groups schools medical care rebuilding efforts and direct monetary support the organization has formed an alternative assistance framework on which many Lebanese families rely particularly where official services fall short.

This entrenched social and economic function has complicated efforts by both the Lebanese government and Israel to reduce Hezbollah's sway.

Significant discontent exists toward both Hezbollah and Iran within Lebanon's Shiite community Merhavy said. Iran has not yet supplied resources to restore homes damaged by Israeli forces over the past two years. Hezbollah fighters also cannot travel freely in Lebanon due to ongoing risk of Israeli targeting.

The matter grows complex due to differing priorities between Israel and the US.

Netanyahu has faced strong pressure from US President Donald Trump to limit actions against Hezbollah out of concern they could disrupt negotiations for a lasting accord between the US and the Iranian regime. Israel has also held direct talks with the Lebanese government for several weeks.

With US mediation there is hope that authorities in Beirut can compel Hezbollah to pull back from southern Lebanon thereby easing a primary threat to Israel. Tehran has reportedly warned the Lebanese government against engaging with Israel.

It ought to be an American priority that Israel diminishes Hezbollah said Baram. Israel must maintain talks with the US. Yet since it is now heavily restricted in military strikes on Hezbollah Israel should collaborate with the US to target Hezbollah's financial system and also work with Syria against Hezbollah.

In late 2024 the fall of the Assad regime in Syria struck a serious blow to Hezbollah's regional standing by interrupting vital supply lines for Iranian arms through Syria into Lebanon. Israel has moved to exploit shifts in Syria striking sites there and curbing Hezbollah's capacity to restore its military strength near Israel's northern border.

The updated arrangement allows each party to declare success while setting fresh constraints. Israel may hit Hezbollah but risks clashing with Iran and tension with Washington.

Iran may threaten escalation yet shows hesitation to enter broader direct fighting. Hezbollah once central to Tehran's regional deterrence plan now focuses mainly on its own endurance.

The risks are substantial. Whether this new balance endures or gives way to further fighting the result will shape power dynamics throughout the Middle East.