Turkey eyes post-conflict Middle East amid shifting regional dynamics - analysis

Ankara's position is unclear, whether it seeks to act as a neutral force or align with most European and NATO nations that avoided direct involvement in the fighting.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accompanied by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Ankara, last April. Ankara is quietly building the framework for lasting regional influence, the writer says.

(photo credit: Murat Kula/Turkish Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS)

BySETH J. FRANTZMAN

MAY 31, 2026 16:15

A recent piece in The Telegraph from the UK suggests that Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stands as the primary beneficiary of the Iran war. The claim centers on Erdogan tightening control over domestic opponents while global attention remains fixed on the Iranian conflict. This view holds interest, yet Turkey's advantages from the situation and the ways it could alter Ankara's direction involve more layers than simply handling internal rivals.

Turkey has worked to stay clear of the Iran fighting. It remains uncertain if Ankara presents itself as impartial or tries to resemble the bulk of European and NATO states that also kept their distance from the war. Turkey has avoided any rebuke from the White House. This differs from the scrutiny directed at European nations and Oman. Ankara has also declined to pursue a mediation part like the one Pakistan and Qatar have pursued.

Turkey therefore occupies a distinct spot. This approach is familiar for Ankara. It has frequently followed its own course. Although a NATO member, Turkey has stayed out of major global conflicts since the close of the First World War. It is worth noting that the Ottoman Empire entered that war alongside Germany and Austria-Hungary. One factor that helped draw the Sublime Porte into the conflict was the arrival of German warships Breslau and Goeben in Turkey, which stood in for vessels the Turks had commissioned from Britain. Ankara backed the defeated side, which contributed to the empire's fall and the rise of modern Turkey.

Perhaps due to that history, contemporary Turkish nationalism has usually aimed to avoid large-scale wars, including the Second World War. During the Cold War, Turkey joined NATO and grew close to the US and the West. Still, Turkey expressed caution about the path of the Global War on Terror after 9/11 and viewed the 2003 US invasion of Iraq with concern.

Since then, Turkey has been governed by the AKP, whose origins lie in Islamic conservatism and ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. This sets it apart from the secular nationalist CHP, which guided Turkey for most of the period from 1923 to 2003. The AKP first focused on strengthening Turkey's economy and even considered closer links with the European Union. Over time, however, the AKP grew more authoritarian and expanded its role abroad. That trend reached its height between 2015 and 2020 amid the Syrian civil war.

In more recent times, Turkey has moderated its foreign posture somewhat. It continues to pursue interests in Syria, Libya, and the Eastern Mediterranean, along with a broader stance that connects Ankara to Islamic and Turkic regions. At the same time, it regards the evolving global order with both caution and efforts to fill emerging power gaps.

Turkey cultivates US relations as Trump team shifts course

Turkey's leader has tried to build strong connections with the Trump administration. Yet Ankara also observes the White House's occasional policy shifts. The administration first sought to conclude the Gaza conflict and secure peace agreements in 2025. By 2026, however, it adopted a more active stance through the Iran war. It has also voiced sharp criticism of longstanding US partners while remaining close to Israel, a development Ankara likely watches warily. Some reports in pro-Israel outlets have floated the idea that Turkey could become the next Iran, prompting concern in Ankara. Officials there appear worried that Israel may seek broader regional dominance. As a NATO member with a sizable defense industry, Turkey can envision possible friction ahead.

Such friction might arise from disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean or developments in Syria. Ankara recognizes the practical realities that can push regional powers into confrontation. Turkey has worked to strengthen relations with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states. This move has heightened worries in Jerusalem that a Sunni grouping might fill the space left by Iranian-backed networks or the Shia crescent.

Here Turkey proceeds with greater care. Instead of criticizing Israel sharply, as it did in 2024 by citing the Gaza war, Turkish officials now adopt a more cautious, wait-and-see stance. The domestic crackdown is not a fresh development. The AKP has long aimed to dismantle what it calls a deep state through widespread arrests of opponents. It has focused on Kurdish left-leaning parties, students, European-linked NGOs, and now the CHP. The current target is Ozgur Ozel, head of the CHP.

Turkey is emerging as a long-term winner from the US-Israeli war against Iran, which has given Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, space to speed up an anti-democratic slide without international consequences, The Telegraph states. Not only has he used the moment to launch a crackdown on rivals while global focus shifted elsewhere, but he has also raised Turkey's profile internationally.

US ambassador to Turkey could influence Iraq policy

Turkey faces several pressing matters. Ankara is pursuing a possible agreement with the PKK that would dissolve the group. It is also advancing talks with Armenia. Turkey balances its backing for Ukraine against its dealings with Russia and seeks to support Syria's emergence as a stable country. The US ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, previously served as US Envoy to Syria until that role ended recently. Barrack may now take part in shaping US policy toward Iraq, a step that would suit Turkey. Yet Barrack draws criticism from Kurdish supporters in Syria and others.

Erdogan has led Turkey for nearly a quarter of a century, strengthening his hold at home, especially after political tests such as the 2013 mass protests and the 2016 military coup attempt, both met with forceful responses from authorities, The Telegraph observes. More recently, large protests broke out in March 2025 following the arrest of Erdogan's chief rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul. Under Erdogan, Turkey, which fields NATO's second-largest military after the US, has risen to become the world's 11th largest arms exporter, notably of drones supplied to many nations from Ukraine to Libya.

The next phase of the Iran conflict remains uncertain. Ankara is watching developments closely. US pressure on Gulf states and Turkey to join the Abraham Accords has drawn attention in Ankara. Turkey has long indicated it could ease its tone toward Israel if the Gaza war ended and Israel accepted a two-state framework. Saudi Arabia shares this perspective. Israel's current governing coalition will not take that step. Still, Turkey is prepared to wait and assess outcomes from elections in Jerusalem. Turkey itself faces elections, and the opposition may gain ground. No situation endures indefinitely, and policies in both Jerusalem and Ankara could shift. The Iran war may therefore unfold in ways that differ from initial expectations.