Trump's Changing Security Signals: Israel Encounters Tension with Washington over Turkey F-35 Sale - Analysis

In Trump’s view, Turkey could stabilize the region, limit Russian influence and anchor Ankara in the Western camp. Israel, however, cannot treat it as an ordinary Western partner.

US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he arrives at the Bestepe Presidential Palace during a formal welcome for the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, July 7, 2026.

(photo credit: Emrah Gurel/Pool via REUTERS)

ByANNA BARSKY

JULY 8, 2026 09:57

US President Donald Trump avoided declaring an F-35 sale to Turkey during his Ankara visit on Tuesday. Instead he took a more significant step by standing with Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the NATO summit opening and laying out why resistance to such a transaction no longer seems obvious to him.

“This is a decision we are going to make,” he stated, noting that Washington would weigh the step because ties with Turkey now appear stronger than those with nations once viewed as more reliable. Erdogan swiftly reinforced the point by recalling that Ankara had already been assured five aircraft and that Trump “always keeps his commitments.”

The deeper message emerged beyond the formal wording. Trump does not view Erdogan through the same lens as Israel. He regards Turkey as a key NATO member with a robust military, a nation that could have aligned against Israel and Iran yet refrained. He commended Ankara for staying out of the conflict “on the other side” and suggested its restraint might stem from his own influence.

Israel reads the situation quite differently. Ankara shelters Hamas, escalates diplomatic pressure on Israel, was reportedly considered by the US president as a potential partner in an attack alongside Iran, clashes with Greece and Cyprus, and seeks greater sway in the eastern Mediterranean. Beneath the arms-sale debate lies a weightier issue: how Washington and Trump now perceive Erdogan’s Turkey.

The F-35s have come to symbolize this divide. Trump aims to restore Turkey to a central role in the Western framework. After sanctions under CAATSA in 2020 and removal from the F-35 program for acquiring Russia’s S-400, he signals that this episode can be set aside. “I don’t want to sanction friends,” he remarked, opening the way for reduced pressure and a more lenient stance toward a wayward yet still valuable partner.

His reasoning is straightforward. Turkey commands the strait linking the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, holds influence in Syria, understands Iran, maintains one of NATO’s largest forces, and, in Trump’s estimation, could help stabilize the area, restrain Russian reach and retain Ankara inside the Western sphere. He believes that isolating Turkey failed to alter its conduct, whereas reintegrating it into the American orbit might better advance US goals.

Turkey Broadens Reach, Cannot Be Viewed as Partner

Israel finds this reading difficult to accept. Erdogan’s Turkey is no longer regarded in Jerusalem as a complicated Western ally whose missteps can be overlooked. In recent years it has emerged as a regional competitor. Backing for Hamas, sharp criticism of Israel after October 7, involvement in Syria, disputes with Greece and Cyprus, and ambitions in the eastern Mediterranean are not seen as isolated incidents.

They reflect, in Israel’s assessment, a consistent pattern of expanding influence at neighbors’ expense. The Israeli concern therefore extends beyond Turkey’s NATO status to whether it can still be considered a “normal” Western ally.

This same concern fuels Israel’s resistance to the deal, which reaches beyond air power. The security establishment now regards the maritime domain as a primary point of friction in the decade ahead. Gas finds, shipping routes, energy sites, and the planned undersea electricity link to Europe via Cyprus and Greece have turned the eastern Mediterranean into a strategic prize.

Turkey meanwhile promotes its “Blue Homeland” doctrine, which widens its maritime claims and challenges existing arrangements. Israel worries that Turkish military enhancement will affect not only aerial balance but also Ankara’s assertiveness around these vital assets.

Israel Highlights Turkey's Regional Challenge

Against this background, Benjamin Netanyahu’s prominent appearance with the navy chief soon after the Trump-Erdogan remarks seems deliberate. It served as a clear signal that Israel views Turkey not merely as a future aerial concern but as a wider strategic challenge that could touch navigation rights, energy infrastructure, and growing ties with Greece and Cyprus. Athens and Nicosia are also monitoring events closely, since the issue for them involves not only aircraft numbers but renewed US legitimacy for Ankara’s regional approach.

For Erdogan the F-35 represents far more than an aircraft. Returning to the procurement path would mark a diplomatic triumph. He could claim that despite the S-400 episode, sanctions, and clashes with Israel, Washington still recognizes Turkey’s role as a regional power essential to shaping the new order. For him, the door opening matters almost as much as the deal itself, since it restores Ankara to the standing it once held.

Yet a wide gap remains between Trump’s words and any signed agreement. The S-400 continues to pose legal and political hurdles, and strong opposition is anticipated in Congress. Professional concerns also persist: fear that a Russian system in Turkey could collect data on F-35 stealth features, harming Israel and every other operator. Even a determined president would face a difficult battle in Washington before turning the Ankara statements into reality.

Even if the deal does not materialize soon, the message delivered in Ankara is unmistakable. For years, preserving Israel’s qualitative military edge appeared to be the baseline for any US discussion of advanced arms sales in the region. Trump’s remarks point to a shift: Israel remains a close partner, yet it is no longer the sole factor. In his estimation, Turkey too constitutes a strategic asset that should be drawn back into the center of play.

That is why the F-35 debate transcends the aircraft itself. It concerns how the United States weighs two of its key eastern Mediterranean allies. Should Trump succeed in returning Turkey to the F-35 track, the outcome would extend beyond another arms transaction. It would signal an American decision to build the emerging regional order around Turkey as well. For Israel this represents not only a security challenge but a potential redefinition of the starting point for US policy in the area.