There exist visionary leaders and skilled negotiators, practical mediators and expert diplomats - and then there are interfering incompetents. As truces collapse, countless civilians perish or escape, and wars that Donald Trump initiated, encouraged or vowed to settle continue unchecked, there is no question which group he fits into. In baseball terms, regarding Ukraine, Iran-Lebanon and Israel-Palestine, Trump is "0 for 3". He claimed he alone could negotiate agreements and achieve peace. He has provided neither. By striking out, he generally worsens the situation.

The grand era of 19th-century statecraft, exemplified by Prince Metternich's power-balancing "concert of Europe" and Benjamin Disraeli's Balkan "peace with honour", belongs to the past. Yet it is not so distant since Nobel-winning peacemakers such as UN leader Kofi Annan and Finnish diplomat Martti Ahtisaari, or US senator George Mitchell, who facilitated Northern Ireland's Good Friday accord, tackled difficult disputes globally. Where are the heirs to Desmond Tutu, Andrei Sakharov or Yitzhak Rabin when required?

Today, ceasefires break down with depressing frequency. Lebanon's recent attempt failed this week. Others, such as the one in Iran, are violated constantly. Sudan lacks any ceasefire whatsoever. And why has ending "forever wars" grown so difficult? Amid unprecedented global turmoil, a shortage of credible, neutral intermediaries and courageous political risk-takers stands as one major cause. The gap in skill between, for instance, Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy who aided resolution of the Bosnian conflict, and Trump's novice representatives, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, resembles that between Arsenal and a weekend park side.

Objectively, Trump's diplomatic record appears poor. He vowed to settle the Ukraine conflict in a day. It now enters its fifth year. He openly backed Russia, informed a pressured Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he held "no cards", and reduced arms deliveries. Yet Trump misjudged his position while underestimating Russian president Vladimir Putin's tendency to deceive and Ukraine's determination. Kremlin figures outmaneuvered the naive Witkoff and Kushner during Moscow discussions. To their discredit, the pair has still not traveled to Kyiv. Trump, having lost credibility, has also lost interest. Believing momentum shifts, Zelenskyy now suggests a ceasefire - which, based on precedent, Putin will dismiss.

Following an unlawful strike on Iran in February, Trump announced a ceasefire in April without achieving core goals and with the strait of Hormuz mostly shut to vessels. Breaches happen regularly, lukewarm "peace talks" through obscure intermediaries yield nothing, and the world economy falters. Once more, Trump misjudged the task, overvalued raw military power to alter political facts, trusted his own (deeply flawed) judgment, ignored European partners and pursued a swift, simple win in vain. He now confronts a prolonged struggle, a rebellious Congress and an irate populace.

In Gaza, the monumental success Trump announced last October, when a truce took hold and Israeli hostages were released, now sounds empty. His 20-point scheme, centered on disarming Hamas, soon stalled. His "Board of Peace" and ambitious notions for Gaza's rebuilding carry little weight. The truth involves ongoing, unacceptable Palestinian hardship and growing Israeli military control. Now Trump's partner, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, applies to southern Lebanon what he did to Gaza - producing a barren wasteland - and thus blocks a US-Iran accord. The pair argued heatedly last week.

Trump's repeated setbacks point to a larger issue. Ceasefires and truces have appeared and vanished in conflict areas such as Yemen, Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo recently without producing enduring solutions. In Sudan, consent to honor a humanitarian pause, let alone halt fighting, stays out of reach after more than three years of civil strife. Deep distrust among combatants forms a toxic shared element. So do rigid positions and a mistaken zero-sum view of complete triumph.

The persistent failure to resolve wars permanently often arises from missing structured, accepted peace efforts. Largely overlooked are times when empowered UN representatives engaged all sides, formed task forces and suggested staged trust-building steps and schedules. There was an extended phase when US secretaries of state, such as Henry Kissinger, Warren Christopher and John Kerry, pursued vigorous shuttle diplomacy toward peace. By contrast, Marco Rubio, the current state department head - a polished, ambitious figure unconcerned with principle - avoids involvement, assuring his superior he is correct when mistaken. Only Trump and Rubio appear surprised that Hezbollah, barred from peace discussions by their US hosts, turned down the latest Lebanon ceasefire.

The stubborn, unyielding character of contemporary conflict reflects the present era. In a global system without shared standards, where major powers and non-state groups dismiss international law and courts, the conduct of war and peace turns equally chaotic. For ruthless regimes seeking maximum national gain, no pact counts as unbreakable, no shameful violation too disgraceful to ignore. Absent rules, peace accords cannot ultimately be upheld.

Institutional frailty grows worse due to the corruption and mediocrity of politicians. Soft-power instruments, discussion, reason and persuasion, ethical demands and historical perspective lose value and face scorn. Raw force, quick wins and market-shifting slogans take priority. In this uninspired desert, the "long term" counts as alien and truth with justice as hopeless causes. Even peace becomes relative in an age when a warlike US president, attacker of several nations, can assert, in Nineteen Eighty-Four doublespeak, that he merits a Nobel peace prize.

Endless, pointless disputes over ceasefires hide the awful effects of conflict on everyday people and strong human motives for stopping the violence. Since the Iran war started, at least 3,468 people have reportedly perished inside the country, 26,500 have suffered injuries, and millions have fled. Focus has shifted, for example, from the still-unexplained Minab primary school attack on 28 February, when US forces reportedly killed over 100 children. Should full-scale combat restart, further atrocities and needless pain will follow.

Civilian deaths keep rising across the broader Middle East. In Lebanon, where thousands have perished despite an earlier (failed) ceasefire, Unicef offered a glimpse of the final week in May when, it noted, 77 children were killed or hurt. Such events echo the terrors of widespread infant and child fatalities at the peak of the Gaza war. They serve as 77 signals why ceasefire talks represent not self-praising political displays or social media spectacles, as Trump's regular remarks imply, but pressing questions of life and death.

None of these wars will finally conclude through military power. It concerns not who possesses the largest bombs or who announces a false victory, Mr Trump. It concerns people's lives. As has largely proven true across history, it is diplomacy - professional, engaged, expert and experienced diplomacy - that unlocks the path to peace.

Simon Tisdall is a Guardian foreign affairs commentator