Three Times as Many Americans Expect Iran Conflict to Fuel Regional Chaos - Poll

Five months into the US conflict with Iran, a fresh Reuters/Ipsos survey shows Americans who foresee the Middle East descending into disorder outnumber those anticipating greater stability by a three-to-one margin.

The poll ended Monday as President Donald Trump again distanced himself from pledges of extensive strikes on Iran, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in a fight he had initially described as likely to yield quick success.

Half of those surveyed believe US military moves in Iran will increase instability across the Middle East in the coming year, roughly triple the 17 percent who expect improved regional conditions. An additional 16 percent anticipate little change in stability levels, while 17 percent expressed uncertainty or declined to respond.

Respondents also voiced pessimism regarding fuel costs, which have climbed amid Iranian restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Some 58 percent anticipate further price increases, compared with just 15 percent who foresee relief.

Similar concerns emerged about the Russian campaign in Ukraine, with most expecting escalation in coming years and additional worries about fresh conflicts emerging globally.

Political Challenges Ahead for Trump and Republicans

The results highlight electoral vulnerabilities for Trump and fellow Republicans as they defend slim majorities in November midterms.

Trump took office in January 2025 promising to steer clear of unwise wars, a stance that appealed to voters tired of prolonged engagements following the 2001 attacks.

Republicans remain divided despite broad backing for Trump: while 80 percent approve of his presidency and 66 percent support his Iran approach, only 41 percent believe the war will improve Middle East stability within a year.

The fighting has triggered Iranian missile and drone strikes on nearby nations and shipping lanes, plus renewed clashes in Lebanon that have eased after a US-mediated pause. Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have also threatened Saudi vessels near the Bab al-Mandab strait.

David Schenker, former State Department Middle East lead under Trump, noted economic fallout could linger even after quick resolution, though he argued US and Israeli actions have notably diminished Iranian military strength and proxy influence.

The campaign, begun jointly with Israel in late February, has already cost US taxpayers at least 37.5 billion dollars, claimed 18 American service lives, and resulted in thousands of Iranian deaths.

War with Iran Draws Widespread Disapproval

Only 35 percent of Americans back the war effort. On handling conflict and terrorism, voters now slightly favor Democrats over Republicans by 37 percent to 36 percent, marking the first Democratic edge since polling began in December 2024.

Justin Logan of the Cato Institute observed that the war started unpopular and has grown more so, placing Trump in a bind between ambitious objectives like curbing Iranian missiles and nuclear ambitions and efforts to limit casualties and domestic backlash.

Broader Worries Over Ukraine and China

The survey also captured fears that existing wars could intensify and new ones erupt. Some 58 percent expressed concern the Russia-Ukraine conflict may worsen, 55 percent worried about China-Taiwan tensions, 48 percent feared Russian clashes with other European states, and 37 percent fretted over possible US involvement regarding Greenland.

The online poll gathered input from 4,505 adults with a two-point margin of error.