Retaking Sanaa: Echoing the Liberation of Damascus

Asharq al-Awsat, London, October 10

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The ongoing conflict in Yemen holds the promise of major historical shifts, much like the transformation that unfolded in Syria after another Iranian-supported regime fell.

Yemen's recognized government now holds sway over more than two-thirds of the nation and presses ahead to recover the rest. Yet reclaiming that remaining third poses steep obstacles due to geography and military hurdles. Quick resolution remains unlikely even with recent advances in the north and southwest.

This campaign targets Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Lebanon's Hezbollah, whose personnel operate inside Houthi command and fighter ranks.

The present effort stands apart in key ways from the earlier Yemen conflict that started in 2015.

Over several years the Houthi militia has functioned under direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Its fighters are no simple cave dwellers as some claim. They received training in Lebanon and Iraq and spent years readying for this clash, turning the fight into another regional showdown with Tehran.

Credible accounts show that Abdul Reza Shahlai, a Quds Force commander, oversaw the Houthis' recent push across the Tihama plain.

Several fresh elements set the current war apart from earlier rounds.

The international community, once split, now stands largely united against the Houthis and increasingly views the effort as a just cause for the Yemeni people. The struggle has also become tied to regional security and global commerce. A clear wish exists to end Houthi dominance as part of wider moves to curb Iranian reach, a process that gained ground with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's rule nearly two years ago.

In the prior war Britain and the US worked to block any push toward Hodeidah and Sanaa, expecting that talks under the Stockholm framework would deliver results.

After nearly ten years of Houthi governance it is evident the group resembles terrorist outfits such as ISIS and Hezbollah. It forms another arm of the Iranian regime's network despite some variations.

The Houthis now pose a sharper global risk this year as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait gains strategic weight.

With the Strait of Hormuz largely shut due to the clash with Iran, the Red Sea serves as an alternate path for energy shipments.

Working with Tehran the Houthis declared plans to seal the strait. Following Iran's pattern of striking oil shipments they imposed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia and struck its tankers. That goal drove their capture of Perim island and the Mocha area last month, both since freed.

Earlier the world showed scant interest in fixing Yemen's dire conditions. Attention rose once the crisis moved beyond Yemenis and neighbors to threaten global shipping lanes. The European Union, Britain and the American administration swiftly denounced the Houthis and supplied logistical aid for operations against them.

Should the present campaign meet its goals it will end Houthi control over the Yemeni people and ease hardship for millions. Roughly 22 million Yemenis under Houthi rule could escape the edge of famine and disease. World Health Organization data show cholera cases have tripled in three weeks alone. Millions of children could resume schooling after years without classes.

The hardline religious group has turned Yemen into a route for those fleeing conflict and hunger in East Africa, a path for drug traffickers and a base for al-Qaeda and ISIS, both active there with ties to the Houthis. The movement also shares arms links with the Somalia-based al-Shabaab terrorist group.

Twelve years have passed since the Houthis seized Sanaa by force. Like Lebanon's Hezbollah they enforced rule through pressure, took a similar title - Ansar Allah - and displayed images of their leaders.

This war differs from past fights and clashes. For the first time Yemen's legitimate government fights as a single force that unites varied Yemeni groups under one flag. Earlier battles were mainly waged by the Arab coalition alongside government troops with narrow local reach.

The weeks and months ahead may prove pivotal. The head of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council has set a clear target: the liberation of Sanaa.

Should Yemenis succeed in defeating Iran's proxy it would mark a major regional win, comparable to the success of Ahmed al-Sharaa's forces when they moved from Idlib province and freed the Syrian capital from Assad's grip. - Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

Iraq's Kurds: Limited Options Push Cooperation With Baghdad

An-Nahar, Lebanon, October 9

As Iraq marks the exit of coalition troops from its soil Iraqi Kurds show little joy. A Kurdish analyst at the London Dialogue research center argues the withdrawal warrants mourning rather than celebration.

It is unwelcome yet remains an Iraqi choice said Sirwan Barzani a Kurdish military leader turned entrepreneur. They invited the forces to their land and now inform them they are no longer required.

Barzani cautioned about fresh ISIS activity. His units and Iraqi government forces have spotted four or five Islamist cells near Makhmour in Nineveh province after months of quiet. The trend raises alarm.

We recall events in 2014. Terrorist cell activity will surely rise and signs already appear.

Iraqi and Kurdish forces are better prepared and structured than in 2014 when ISIS seized a third of Iraq and large parts of Syria. The group was later expelled from Iraq in 2017 and Syria in 2019 via counterattacks by local units backed by the international coalition.

In 2024 Iraqi and Iranian officials settled that coalition troops would depart Iraq by September 30 2026.

Today the chief danger to Iraqi Kurds is not ISIS but repeated Iranian drone strikes amid tensions between Washington and Tehran and the chance that Iraqi Kurds might aid their Iranian counterparts in actions against the Islamic Republic.

On the day coalition forces left an Iranian drone hit a civilian camp for Iranian Kurds near Iraqi Kurdistan.

Since February 28 when the US and Israel struck Iran the Kurdish Region of Iraq has endured roughly 1000 drone and missile attacks from Iran and Iraqi armed groups aligned with it. The strikes have claimed about 32 lives including 19 members of Iranian Kurdish parties.

In March reports spread that Iranian Kurdish forces might launch a ground assault on Iran with American and Israeli support yet no such move occurred.

On September 27 the Kurdistan Regional Government's media office confirmed that Iranian Kurdish groups knew of the 2023 security pact between Erbil Baghdad and Tehran meant to block armed Iranian Kurdish groups from striking neighboring states.

Meanwhile Iraq had set September 20 as the cutoff for disarming Iraqi militias under American pressure only to delay it until June 30 2027.

The main internal Iraqi risk stems from pro-Iranian militias which have struck Iraqi Kurdistan and nearby countries more than 100 times this year said retired US Army Col. Myles Caggins a former coalition spokesman.

Baghdad confronts a major task in facing these illegal militias that keep launching drones without real repercussions.

Barzani therefore holds that the Kurds require air defenses. This remains Iraqi airspace. Even if Iraq itself lacks sufficient defenses it stays exposed to these threats and the hope is that any new air-defense systems given to Baghdad will reach Kurdistan as well.

Joey Hood a former senior State Department official for Near Eastern affairs who also served in Iraq views it as unlikely that Iranian attacks across the Middle East including Iraqi Kurdistan will stop.

Iran has hit not only American troops but also American interests using that reason to strike a power station in Kurdistan and a water-analysis site in Kuwait.

The federal government in Baghdad and the regional government in Erbil must join forces with partners such as the US to obtain and field air-defense systems able to counter these strikes.

Even before the American-Iranian war Iran and its linked groups targeted sites of Iranian opposition forces Kurdish oil and gas facilities and Kurdish businessmen.

On January 16 2024 for instance Kurdish billionaire Peshraw Dizayee and his 11-year-old daughter died in a ballistic missile attack that Iran defended as aimed at an Israeli espionage hub.

On September 30 US Central Command chief Brad Cooper stated that Iraqi security forces including the Kurdish Peshmerga now hold the skills leadership and operational freedom needed to face threats to their land. Yet another CENTCOM officer voiced worry that Baghdad would show little interest in shielding Kurdish areas especially amid fears of border crossings.

The Kurds must therefore lean more on themselves and on ties with Baghdad according to a coalition official who previously advised the Peshmerga.

Regrettably the coalition is now departing. Its ongoing presence would have helped both against ISIS and in sustaining military support. Only time will reveal whether these worries hold true.

At a farewell event for American troops Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani noted one fact the Kurds cannot escape: their rising reliance on Baghdad. This signals a new phase in which Iraq itself must play an active and real national part. - Sarkis Naoum

Restarting the Iran Conflict: Congress Faces Off With Pentagon

Al-Ittihad, UAE, October 10

Shifts inside the Pentagon and Congress along with rival power centers in the American decision process especially the administration itself point to a widening split over managing the war with Iran how much to spend the oversight methods and the boundaries of authority in running military actions.

Disagreements over the war have moved from Democratic leaders to voices inside the Republican Party many of them backers of President Donald Trump. The debate also draws in military and political figures and reaches Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth himself.

At the core of these divides lie the war's expense and the outlook for continued operations. Spending had already hit 43 billion dollars by September including extra costs and nearly 28 billion dollars for restocking ammunition and other requested funds.

This has led lawmakers from both parties to call for full accounting of operational costs damage to American bases and the price of fixing aircraft ships and other gear.

The Congressional Budget Office has also offered estimates of the war's costs and effects on military reserves further complicating the administration's request for at least 67 billion dollars in added funding. This arrives alongside a proposed defense budget that could reach 1 trillion dollars in 2027 with room for even higher outlays if full-scale war restarts.

The key split is that the Pentagon seeks more resources while Congress wants to set the goals for which funds may be used and limit their application. Lawmakers from both parties may not fully grasp the scale of the military needs involved.