The Palestinian Authority has built up a military force in the West Bank that violates the Oslo Accords and creates an unprecedented threat to millions of residents in central Israel, according to a new report by Lt.-Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch published by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.

Hirsch explained that the West Bank now contains an armed force ten times larger than the number of terrorists who crossed from Gaza on October 7. He described the group as simply waiting for orders to strike.

Qalqilya sits only 14 kilometers from the Mediterranean Sea, placing cities such as Kfar Saba, Ra'anana, Hod Hasharon, and Herzliya within easy reach. Hirsch noted that terrorists advanced 22 kilometers into Israel on October 7, showing that a shorter incursion remains a real possibility for which Israel is unprepared.

The report added that the force now possesses tens of thousands of weapons, exceeds the personnel limits set by agreement, and maintains an ideological commitment to Israel's destruction.

During the first and second intifadas, hundreds of PA security personnel took part in attacks on Israel. Since then the force in the West Bank has expanded by 400 percent, even though the Oslo Accords allowed only a limited police force tasked with public order and fighting groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

The organization grew from 12,000 personnel equipped with 4,000 rifles, 4,000 pistols, 120 machine guns, and 15 armored vehicles to an estimated 70,000 soldiers. It now holds tens of thousands of rifles and pistols, dozens of armored vehicles, and conducts military training. Many weapons have been smuggled or produced locally without Israeli consent, despite the requirement for mutual agreement on any increases.

Although some might claim the growth reflects population needs, the report pointed out that crime rates in the West Bank remain relatively low, undermining any justification for such a large force.

PA Conceals True Size of Its Forces

Official Palestinian statistics recorded 1,335.6 criminal offenses per 100,000 residents in 2024. The report also observed that a civilian police force rarely receives training in artillery, sniping, heavy machine guns, and parachuting.

Under the Oslo Accords the PA was required to submit candidate names to Israel, which held veto power over recruitment. Yet the PA has repeatedly hidden the real size of its force. Early estimates showed 18,000 personnel when only 9,000 were permitted, later rising to 40,000 in 2001 and more than 65,000 by 2014. By 2018 the number reached roughly 65,829, more than five times the agreed limit.

Ideologically, Fatah shares key goals with Hamas. PA officials have stated that terrorists held in Israeli prisons belong to PA security forces. Despite these similarities, PA President Mahmoud Abbas secured international backing by presenting Hamas as an adversary, which led to the Wanted Terrorists Agreement under which Fatah militants handed over weapons and were removed from Israel's target list, only to be absorbed into the PA security apparatus.

This pattern continued when the PA embedded terrorists within its ranks in 2020 to conceal Pay-for-Slay payments. The result placed individuals with terrorist histories in charge of operations against groups such as Hamas.

PA forces receive training from the United States as well as from countries hostile to Israel that also train Hamas. In 2024 reports revealed instruction in armored warfare, artillery, shoulder-fired missiles, heavy machine guns, sniping, and parachuting in Pakistan. Some trainees, including Ahmed Alawna, had previously participated in attacks against Israel.

Israeli Governments Have Supplied Weapons to PA

Despite its advanced capabilities, the PA has received weapons from successive Israeli governments, including deliveries weeks before the October 7 attacks. Official responses to requests for information on the scale of transfers have been limited, with no claim that the data is classified.

Hirsch warned that the force built by the PA will eventually turn its weapons against Israeli citizens. Because of its size, training, and location, an attack northward, westward, or southward could endanger millions inside the Green Line and produce casualties exceeding those of October 7.

He recommended that Israel stop all approvals for arms transfers, tie future aid to reductions in force size, create independent oversight, close military training bases, prepare the IDF for a similar scenario in the West Bank, and urge the United States and European Union to end financial support for PA military training.