OCTOBER 18, 2026 07:48

With October 27 fast approaching, pressure is mounting. The key issue centers on whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can stay in office, even as most surveys point to limited prospects. Still, reviewing the campaigns run by Gadi Eisenkot and Netanyahu shows each camp holds a distinct view of why the 2026 vote matters greatly for the country's direction.

Eisenkot and other center-left figures such as Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman, and Yair Golan have centered their efforts on the October 7 shortcomings and the matter of ultra-Orthodox military service. Netanyahu, by contrast, stresses gains from the War of Redemption while minimizing his role in the October 7 lapse.

Beyond claims that Netanyahu received advance alerts from Emirati and Egyptian sources, remarks from his ex-military secretary Avi Gil are viewed by critics as strong proof of his shortcomings.

Eisenkot's group has also stressed that Netanyahu's close associates face corruption issues and questions of honesty. This includes an alleged bid to alter official logs and a selective reading of the State Comptroller's findings on the October 7 events.

These opposition points invite discussion, and closer review of Gil's comments supports the view that security bodies fell short that night. Even so, several issues surface when weighing the positions of each side.

Reviewing the positions

Although Netanyahu followed a flawed approach to Hamas partly to protect Saudi normalization talks, he only received alerts about an attack once it was underway.

In contrast to the lead-up to the Yom Kippur War, when Golda Meir took part in choices and might have launched a preemptive move, Netanyahu had no chance to shape outcomes that evening.

Further doubts emerge over the reported effort to shift a call time in records from 6:40 a.m. to 6:29 a.m. to back a theory of a generals' revolt. Opponents claim the change aimed to suggest top officers deliberately delayed waking Netanyahu.

Yet another view holds that the adjustment sought to show Netanyahu was awake as Hamas fighters entered border areas. Leaving the time at 6:40 a.m. would have better supported claims that he learned of events only 11 minutes after the start.

Netanyahu's tense ties with security heads partly stemmed from his push during judicial reform talks to address military refusal directly. Detractors say he ignored warnings on the reform's risks to security and broader alerts of possible conflict.

Others note that a firm IDF response to refusal, as seen in the Gaza Disengagement, might have made Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif reconsider their plans.

This prompts a further point: if security leaders had flagged an imminent war, why was the IDF caught unprepared that day?

Overall, Netanyahu has run an ongoing campaign since the 2022 vote, especially after the October 7, 2023, attack. Yet stressing alleged record changes and the actions of his circle is unlikely to unseat him in 2026.

Israel's past shows corruption alone rarely sways voters. Arye Deri guided Shas to 17 seats in 1999 after a bribery conviction. Ariel Sharon led Likud to 38 seats in 2003 amid questions over the Cyril Kern matter.

Netanyahu has held over 30 seats in votes since facing charges. Rather than looking backward, the opposition gains more by showing voters a brighter path ahead without his leadership. That approach wins elections.

The writer serves as a lecturer and research fellow at the University of South Wales in the United Kingdom. He wrote Collapse: The Israeli Labor Party, 1992-2024.