Netanyahu coalition projected at 48 seats, opposition bloc reaches 62 after legislative surge - poll

Survey reveals 83 percent of voters oppose Haredi parties entering the next coalition, while just 8 percent back the idea.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi appear in the Knesset during a vote on communications reform, Jerusalem, July 16, 2026

(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

ByMOSHE COHEN

JULY 17, 2026 08:46

Updated: JULY 17, 2026 10:50

The opposition bloc stands to capture 62 seats in the coming election, leaving the sitting coalition with only 48, according to the newest survey released Friday by Maariv.

In the wake of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rapid legislative moves ahead of the Knesset dissolution, the latest Maariv poll shows the opposition alliance, led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar!, on track for a majority in the October 27, 2026 elections.

The poll indicates Likud is shedding mandates and now shares the top spot with Yashar, each holding 22 seats.

Shas registers just seven seats, its weakest showing since the 2022 vote when it secured 11. The Religious Zionist Party holds steady at four seats, while Otzma Yehudit falls to seven.

Blue and White along with Balad fail to meet the 3.25 percent electoral threshold needed for Knesset representation.

Most Israelis oppose including haredi parties in coalition

The Maariv poll also shows 83 percent of voters against bringing Haredi parties into any coalition formed after the elections, while 8 percent support the move.

By comparison, 70 percent favor adding an Arab party to the coalition after voting, 10 percent oppose the step, and 20 percent say it makes no difference or have no view.

Public confidence remains low in the current government's capacity to decide wisely for Israel before the election: only 38 percent believe it can succeed, whereas 55 percent expect it will not.

The survey ran July 8-9 via Maariv with Panel4ALL Research under Menachem Lazar. It polled 500 respondents forming a representative sample of Israeli adults aged 18 and over, including Jews and Arabs. Maximum sampling error stands at 4.4 percent.