ByREUTERS

JUNE 23, 2026 09:43

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio embarks on a sensitive trip this week to promote Washington's proposed peace agreement with Iran among Gulf Arab leaders. These leaders worry that too many concessions might empower Tehran and alter the balance of security and oil routes in the area.

Rubio plans meetings in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, followed by stops in Kuwait and Bahrain. There he will engage with officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman alongside the host nations.

Central to the discussions are draft terms that omit restrictions on Iran's ballistic missiles, propose a $300 billion reconstruction fund and include clauses that might increase Tehran's sway over regional affairs and key oil shipping passages.

All six GCC members serve as key US partners. They provided varying logistical assistance during the recent US-Israeli conflict with Iran that started four months ago, and several endured Iranian missile strikes in return.

Some governments express private disappointment and surprise at an interim accord that could pave the way for US normalization with Iran, a mainly Shi'ite nation viewed by most Sunni GCC states as their primary rival.

The views of these nations carry weight with US decision makers.

The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain each host American military installations that form the core of US security arrangements in the Middle East. Any shift in their security ties with Washington, even modest, could affect American military planning across the region.

For Rubio the journey demands careful diplomacy.

While the top US diplomat seeks to reassure allies, he must avoid any appearance of criticizing the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. President Donald Trump, who endorsed the accord last week, continues to back it firmly even as some fellow Republicans in Congress charge the administration with yielding to Tehran.

Andrew Peek, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Iraq and Iran who served on Trump's National Security Council in both terms, suggested Rubio could ease allied concerns by highlighting Trump's record of firm action against the Islamic Republic.

"I think you can just remind them that the president has conducted extremely hawkish policies toward Iran - and if this MoU falls through, he will have no compunction about going back to striking them," said Peek, who is now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Peace, but at what cost?

Leaders from every GCC country that will host Rubio or attend this week's talks publicly called for a diplomatic path before fighting began in February. Most also sought an off-ramp during the conflict, even while they practically supported the US military effort.

Nevertheless, the precise provisions of the MoU privately surprised regional officials, according to analysts and diplomats.

One key worry involves ballistic missiles. During the war the Trump administration identified eliminating Iran's ballistic missile capability as a main objective. That aim matched the interests of the Sunni Gulf states, since unlike the US all lie within Iranian missile range and have faced such attacks.

The MoU, however, makes no reference to Iranian missiles, and Trump has stated in recent days that denying Tehran such weapons would be "unfair."

The accord also envisions a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Tehran. Regional neighbors fear this could enable the Islamic Republic to expand its military strength and increase backing for proxy groups that might destabilize governments across the area.

Bahrain's mainly Sunni leadership, in particular, fears that a better-funded Iran could encourage unrest among the island nation's mainly Shi'ite population, analysts say. During the Arab Spring the country of roughly 1.65 million experienced repeated large-scale street protests.

Iran has rejected any secret efforts to incite unrest yet has voiced public support for Bahraini Shi'ite activists in earlier years.

The agreement as drafted also appears to allow Iran a significant role in managing the Strait of Hormuz in the future, a major issue for Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia that depend on the waterway to ship oil and gas.

More broadly, US officials have started discussing a wider reset with Tehran, a prospect most GCC states view with caution. On Saturday, Vice President JD Vance indicated the US was prepared to "fundamentally transform" its ties with Tehran.

"The agreement rehabilitates Tehran's regime as a regional power," veteran Saudi columnist Abdulrahman Al-Rashed wrote in Saudi English-language daily Arab News last week.

"Most of the funds Tehran will acquire in the coming weeks are likely to go primarily towards strengthening the military position, not to support living conditions or the Iranian economy."