On June 25 an Iranian attack drone struck the Singapore-flagged container vessel Ever Lovely while it crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Two days afterward the Panamanian crude carrier Kiku suffered a similar hit close to the Omani shoreline, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reports.

The incidents occurred even though a fragile pause in hostilities between Washington and Tehran was meant to restore normal traffic through this essential sea lane.

Commercial vessels can no longer count on unimpeded movement since the United States and Iran shut the passage during the conflict that erupted in February. Both sides now face the costly results of that standoff.

Nearly one-fifth of global energy supplies move through the strait. The sudden halt has driven energy prices sharply higher and increased pressure on US President Donald Trump to reach an accommodation with Tehran.

While talks continue over future control of the waterway, it is still uncertain how merchant shipping will adjust to the heightened dangers.

The physical layout presents the first obstacle. At its narrowest point the strait measures only 54 km across. Inbound and outbound lanes are each just 3.7 km wide with a two-mile separation zone between them, leaving scant margin in busy waters and giving Iran a powerful position to influence traffic.

Tehran now demands that vessels follow only routes it designates and has warned it will use force against any that choose other paths.

Rather than relying on costly missiles or naval boardings, Iranian forces have turned to cheaper asymmetric tools such as mines, unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned surface vessels.

Rear-Admiral (res.) Yuval Eylon of the Institute for National Security Studies explained that these low-cost options allow Iran to restrict access without deploying large forces or firing missiles.

A Shahed-136 drone costs roughly $35,000, far less than the $4 million price of a single Patriot interceptor.

Ship operators remain reluctant to install defensive systems on their vessels. Dor Raviv, CTO of Orca AI, noted that commercial crews prefer to stay neutral and fear that weapons would make them targets.

Owners have also rejected NATO escorts for the same reason, worrying that military protection would signal alignment with one side.

Even if protection were desired, Eylon added that escort operations in such a confined area prove too expensive and logistically difficult to sustain.

Electronic warfare offers another approach. GPS spoofing can mislead incoming drones, yet the same interference also leaves ships without reliable positioning data.

Deprived of GPS, many vessels struggle to maintain course. On July 1 one ship reportedly ran aground after attempting an unapproved alternate route.

Orca AI addresses this gap by alerting crews instantly when GPS signals are compromised. Its Co-Captain platform shares real-time disruption reports among a network of about 1,500 vessels, giving approaching captains advance warning. The firm’s existing camera systems also allow visual navigation when satellite data fails.

Asio Technologies tackles the issue from above with its GeoFusion system, already used by the Israeli military. The technology lets aircraft continue operating despite heavy jamming and provides surveillance over shipping lanes for mines, drones and hostile craft.

Founder Tomer Malchi said the capability preserves operational freedom for both air and sea assets even when GPS is denied.

These solutions may reduce some risks, yet owners and insurers still view the overall situation as too unstable for routine operations.

Many believe that governments and navies, not private companies, should guarantee safe passage. While diplomats negotiate, operators are likely to pay required fees and pass costs to customers.

Raviv predicted that economic and diplomatic factors will ultimately prevail, restoring oil flows after a period of uncertainty.

Eylon warned that success in Hormuz could encourage similar toll demands elsewhere, such as the Malacca Strait or Gibraltar.