Israeli security officials worry about renewed conflict as Khamenei and IRGC seek payback - analysis

Officials noted that the ceremony seeks to legitimize and affirm Mojtaba Khamenei's role as successor.

Israeli security officials are tracking the pilgrimage to Tehran closely. This event drew leaders and top figures from various militant groups to the funeral of Ali Khamenei.

Security sources informed Walla that segments of the event aim to legitimize and affirm Mojtaba Khamenei as his father's successor. Mojtaba suffered serious injuries during the strike on his father and reportedly avoided the funeral out of fear. Numerous other leaders stayed away and sent proxies instead.

The security establishment reports that Iran is slowly bringing back internet access under economic strain. Yet authorities have long shown skill at managing public opinion and controlling street-level activity.

Iran works nonstop to rebuild its military strength and fix its economy, which faces tough sanctions. At present the core economic problems remain unchanged and continue to pressure the regime.

Even with US President Donald Trump stating that Iran will not gain nuclear arms, Israel stays out of the talks and holds no direct or indirect role. This leaves the Israeli security establishment concerned it might face surprises from choices made in Washington and Tehran.

IDF readies for possible return of fighting with Iran

The IDF keeps preparing for a return of combat with Iran or for fresh intelligence on threats to Israeli civilians that would demand quick strikes.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir checks and clears defensive and offensive plans each week. Military Intelligence keeps adding to the target list and confirming current ones.

The IDF assesses that the war cost Iran heavily. Still officials believe the regime and Revolutionary Guards are far from falling and have already started recovery work.

Mojtaba Khamenei's strong push for revenge

A senior security official stated that the assumption is Mojtaba Khamenei, who saw his father die, holds a deep wish for payback. This stems from both the humiliation the regime faced from the IDF and the loss of his father.

Revolutionary Guards commander Ahmad Vahidi adds to that drive for revenge, the official added.

At the same time a senior official noted that if Hezbollah strikes Israeli civilians the IDF will hit targets in Beirut's Dahiyeh area.

Such a move would again push Tehran to choose between firing missiles at Israel or staying out.