OCTOBER 16, 2026 12:46

As voting day draws close, Netanyahu focuses on right-leaning rivals, while Eisenkot works to secure the strong position that would position him as the clear opposition choice for premier.

Picture Israel like a vast ocean liner. Given the nation's intense daily pressures, this image may call for creativity, yet follow along briefly.

Along the starboard flank of the vessel, the conservative side, gather all supporters in the pro-Netanyahu group, divided among various lounges and salons.

Likud holds the largest lounge, with smaller spaces for Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and the Religious Zionist Party.

On the port flank, divided from starboard by a corridor with passages to both areas, sit the spaces of the anti-Netanyahu group.

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar occupies the main space there, followed by Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, along with smaller areas for the Democrats and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu.

In the corridor stand Ofer Winter's People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha's reservist-economist party. At the rear, in a separate small boat, travel the two Arab parties.

As the liner heads toward its goal, Election Day, just 11 days off, spokespeople from each group exchange the usual charges across the corridor.

From one group: "You caused the greatest setback in Israel's past and steer the nation to ruin." From the other: "You will align with those in the small boat and create a Palestinian state."

Yet the key moves occur within each side of the vessel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu glances across the corridor, aiming to convince Winter's and Hendel's backers to leave them and shift to his side. On the port side, Eisenkot seeks to grow his already sizable lounge by drawing from spaces held by others on his flank.

Netanyahu steps up drive to unite conservative voters

These two moves shape the closing phase of the trip to Election Day. A clear marker that the race has reached this stage? Netanyahu's sudden presence across media outlets.

After months when the prime minister's talks were mostly for overseas outlets, ABC, CBS, Fox News, and various podcasts, he appeared in local studios this week, and not solely on Channel 14.

True, on Tuesday he returned to Channel 14, where a supportive audience welcomed him warmly. Yet the next day he joined Channel 11, and in between he spoke on Army Radio.

His points came in two parts: the vote is dangerously tight, and conservative voters cannot risk uncertainty.

The first point is well known. Netanyahu has issued similar alerts in past races, cautioning his base that success is fading. On Channel 14, he addressed the likely reply: viewers would see this as his usual alarm tactic. This time, he stressed, the concern is real. The contest is even, he noted.

And exactly where did he spot conservative voters taking chances?

Beyond the usual cautions about Eisenkot aligning with Ahmad Tibi and the vote deciding if a Palestinian state forms, a narrower focus emerges: Winter's party.

Netanyahu's sharp critiques of the retired brigadier-general stand out in these final days. When he might focus attacks on Eisenkot and Bennett, he spends notable effort on a minor party in the corridor.

Netanyahu said he had urged Winter to merge with Likud and, when that did not work, to partner with another minor right-leaning group. That effort also failed, so now he targets him directly.

In one recent message against Winter, Netanyahu claimed Winter would siphon conservative votes and deliver them to Liberman on the port side.

"It is no accident that a top name on Liberman's list, Yulia Malinovsky, states that Winter will eventually join a government with Liberman. That is the outcome. That is the intent," Netanyahu said.

Then came a strong link to Bennett, who built a government in 2021 with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid and Mansour Abbas's Ra'am.

"If he moves like Bennett and speaks like Bennett, he is Bennett. Support Likud, support the Right. Winter is not conservative. Winter is Bennett 2. We cannot waste the Right's support. Do not back Winter."

Winter's terms for alliance hinder Netanyahu's poll plans

Netanyahu's worry comes in two forms.

First, Winter's party may miss the 3.25 percent vote mark, wasting ballots from conservative voters. Of the 19 main surveys since October 1, the party cleared the mark in 11, including four of the seven from the past week.

That keeps Winter active, yet offers little comfort to Netanyahu that those votes will matter.

The next worry is that Winter clears the mark, then offers his seats to others.

Winter and his team state they will back Netanyahu for president as premier. Yet they add they will skip any government where haredi parties hold sway unless those groups accept broad haredi draft rules.

But what if Netanyahu rejects those terms? Asked this directly in a Channel 12 talk on Saturday night, Winter replied bluntly that Netanyahu could simply step aside.

No one controls me, he stated.

Winter did not clearly bar joining an Eisenkot or Liberman government. He did, however, bar sitting with Yair Golan, since "he harms Israel overseas."

For Netanyahu's team, that created space wide enough for a campaign vehicle.

A recommendation differs from a pledge to enter a government. Winter offers the first, with strings on the second. Netanyahu wants conservative voters to note that gap and reach the view he offers: Winter might repeat Bennett's path.

The push reached signs and posters in zones where Winter list members reside. Davidi Ben-Zion, eighth on the list, stepped down, reportedly citing strain on his family, including critical posters near stops used by his children.

Netanyahu's concerns also cover the other corridor party: Hendel and Zelekha's group.

In the Channel 14 talk, Netanyahu targeted Zelekha, whom Netanyahu, as finance minister, named accountant-general in 2003. Despite the party's draw for conservative voters, Netanyahu said Zelekha had backed Meretz before and joined anti-government rallies on Balfour Street in Jerusalem and Kaplan Street in Tel Aviv.

He also hit Zelekha on economic issues, questioning his record as a market advocate.

Hendel and Zelekha's party cleared the mark in all seven main polls this week. Yet unlike Winter, they have not pledged to back Netanyahu. Hendel says the party will use its position to form a broad Zionist government without Arab or haredi groups.

Given the numbers, how such a government would form stays unclear. Like Winter, Hendel states his conditions more clearly than the path to meet them.

Yet Netanyahu does not require their full plans to see the risk. He needs voters drawn to those parties back with him.

Eisenkot pushes for strong lead to claim opposition helm

Across the corridor, Eisenkot faces a separate task.

His push to make Yashar the top party targets, in part, voters already on his side. He wants them to exit other spaces and join his lounge.

For Netanyahu, the near goal is to hold the group together. For Eisenkot, it is also to show who leads it.

That explains why heads of other parties in his group show less support for his approach. A voter shifting from Bennett, Liberman, or Golan to Eisenkot does not grow the group. It grows Eisenkot.

The larger Yashar grows, and the wider its edge over Likud, the firmer his case to build the next government, even if his group falls short of 61 seats.

Eisenkot used one line this week: Netanyahu must not win by losing. He means Netanyahu must not stay as interim premier through another round of unclear votes simply because no other leader can build a coalition.

In a Yediot Aharonot talk this week, Eisenkot said, "If you [Netanyahu] believe you will repeat past moves on me, that is, stay in power as interim premier, that will not occur." When Israel held five votes in under four years, from April 2019 to November 2022, Netanyahu served 19 months as interim premier across two periods.

Eisenkot weighs minority government to block Netanyahu's hold

One path Eisenkot sees to avoid a repeat is to present a minority government to the Knesset for approval and gain backing from a majority of those voting.

A government need not have 61 members to pass such a vote; it needs only a majority of those in the chamber who cast ballots. This path could open, for example, if Arab parties simply abstain.

Once approved, Eisenkot could then draw members from the other side. A clear lead over Likud would lend that effort more public weight.

Other factors apply too.

First, in the rare case that a rotation deal with Likud became viable, a clear lead in seats would strengthen his case to serve first as premier.

More directly, the larger Yashar grows, the tougher it becomes for Bennett or Liberman to claim another should head the group.

The four parties in the change group have not yet set a process to pick their prime ministerial candidate after the vote.

Eisenkot has noted, reasonably, that the head of the party with the most votes should lead the group. Since Yashar now leads the group by a solid margin, that rule would clearly aid him.

It stays unclear, though, if the others will accept this. Yet the wider the margin, the harder it becomes to justify why the head of a much smaller party should take the top role.

Eisenkot campaigns both against Netanyahu and for a result inside his own group that would make his leadership secure.

Both Netanyahu's and Eisenkot's moves fit the moment.

Netanyahu aims to stop conservative votes from vanishing or moving to another government. Eisenkot aims to ensure that, if a chance to replace Netanyahu arises, he will take it.

Yet both moves face limits. For Netanyahu, keeping his group united does not ensure enough backing to stay in charge. And for Eisenkot, holding the largest space on one side does not ensure enough support to lead the full vessel.