Iranian-supported militias are once more employing Iraq as a base to strike neighboring countries and destabilize the broader Middle East. In the span of roughly thirty-six hours from July 27 to 28, these groups directed assaults at Saudi Arabia and the Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq.

Signs also point to possible threats against Jordan and Israel, along with Syria. Such actions align with the militias' established pattern. Over many years Iran has constructed an extensive network of armed factions inside Iraq and tied them directly to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The latest strikes focused on Saudi Arabia and the Kurdistan Region. Evidence of anti-aircraft activity in Syria suggests an additional incursion there. These incidents demonstrate Iran's intent to activate its Iraqi militia assets for wider operations.

How Iran constructed its militia network in Iraq

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Quds Force supplied funding, arms, training and logistical aid to these factions. Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq developed from connections to the Mahdi Army, while Kataib Hezbollah formed around 2006.

Following ISIS gains across Iraq in 2014, numerous Shi'ite militias rallied under the Popular Mobilization Forces banner. Although the PMF later integrated into Iraq's official security apparatus, many units preserved strong ties to Tehran and expanded their political, financial and IRGC influence.

The United States designates several prominent Iran-backed Iraqi militias as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists. These include Kataib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada.

Details on which specific units conducted the Monday and Tuesday attacks remain unclear. Kataib Hezbollah has typically executed advanced long-range drone operations against Saudi Arabia and previously deployed fighters into Syria, maintaining a base near Albukamal until the Assad government collapsed.

Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq leader Qais Khazali visited Lebanon in 2017 and issued threats against Israel. The groups maintain close links with Hezbollah. Current indications suggest they may now target Syria, viewed as increasingly aligned with the United States, especially as Syria has signaled possible pressure on Hezbollah and halted arms transfers through its territory.

Iran previously claimed strikes near Tanf in Syria earlier this month. Tanf hosted a former US outpost supporting anti-ISIS rebels that closed in February. Kataib Hezbollah also struck Tower 22 in Jordan in January 2024, killing three Americans.

Iran may now seek to deploy Iraqi militias for fresh threats against Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Kurdistan Region and potentially Israel or US personnel. The umbrella label Islamic Resistance in Iraq has been used by these factions since the October 2023 Hamas attack, claiming numerous drone and rocket strikes on US forces and Israel as part of Iran's Axis of Resistance.

Drone strikes expand across the region

In the Nineveh plains near Mosul, additional Iran-backed militias operate. Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani stated that recent attacks originated from the Mosul area. The Nineveh Plains host diverse Christian, Yazidi and other minority populations.

The PMF 30th Brigade, tied to the Shabak community, gained prominence during the fight against ISIS and later consolidated influence around Mosul. It maintains links to Badr, one of the largest PMF factions, which is not US-sanctioned. Past militia activity in the plains involved Bongo trucks firing 122mm rockets toward Erbil, where US forces and a consulate are located. Recent attacks have shifted to drones supplied by Iran over the past six years.

Full details of the latest drone incidents are still emerging. Jordan's Petra News reported that the Royal Jordanian Air Force intercepted and destroyed a drone that entered Jordanian airspace early Tuesday. Israel's IDF confirmed interception of UAVs near the Jordan border on July 27 and again early Tuesday, noting the launch origin remains under review.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has called for all weapons in Iraq to come under state control, implying militia disarmament. However, factions may argue that their PMF status already places them under government authority, with Badr likely advancing this position as the largest component.

Zaidi has not identified specific groups for disarmament. Core members of the Islamic Resistance have signaled they will not comply and may resist. Kataib Hezbollah and similar hard-line elements remain heavily armed and have repeatedly demonstrated willingness to threaten surrounding countries on Iran's behalf. The recent attacks highlight how Iran continues to mobilize these networks even amid temporarily eased US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.