Iran perceives strategic edge as Trump aims to dodge wider war, ex Israeli official states

Iran holds the view that it enjoys a strategic upper hand since the United States wants to steer clear of expanded fighting, former senior Israeli security figure Avner Vilan told 103FM in a Monday interview.

"The Iranians feel they have won," Vilan remarked. "They hold sway over the Strait of Hormuz and no one has touched them. Their approach is paying off."

He noted that Tehran sees US President Donald Trump as hesitant to enter another major conflict and thus ready to accept higher risks.

"They grasp that Trump wants to avoid another large war, so they engage in this game of chicken and accept risks," Vilan explained. "From Iran's standpoint the test is not just taking hits from the opponent but enduring the leftover effects. The Iranians ready themselves for a case where even if infrastructure falls and the economy suffers badly the regime endures. It can still exert influence, maybe not at prior levels, yet it will keep harassing the region and hitting key civilian sites."

Vilan contended that even when military strength clearly tilts one way the final result hinges on which party feels more pressure to settle.

"We might reach a point where militarily there is no doubt who prevailed," he said. "Yet strategically the key is who faces more pressure to agree on terms. I am not sure that even after strikes on Iran American pressure for a deal would not prove stronger."

Iran sees US hesitation as strategic gain

At the same time a pointed editorial in The Wall Street Journal faulted Trump's choice to pause military steps in the Persian Gulf once more while citing vague remarks about a possible accord.

The piece noted that Trump posted on social media Saturday evening asserting that Iran and other regional states had urged him to stop further action because understandings had formed on an agreement outline.

Trump described the reported points as including full immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and total end to Iran's nuclear efforts though he gave no further specifics. The apparent shift followed days after US reports that he had chosen to step up the military reply to Iranian vessel attacks and missile fire at a US base in Jordan.

The editorial also referenced Saudi claims that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed Trump to avoid more escalation due to fears that kingdom oil sites could face strikes from Iran and Iran backed Houthis.

Per the Wall Street Journal editorial if those accounts hold true they indicate Iran is now driving the regional pace and setting escalation terms.