Iran is holding back from attacking Israel in part because of concerns that Hezbollah could collapse in Lebanon if clashes with Israel restart, according to retired military Lt.-Col. (res.) Or Horowitz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and former head of the military intelligence Hezbollah desk.

The US State Department reported this week that operations have started in three pilot zones in Lebanon, covering the villages of Froun, Srifa, and Zawtar al-Gharbiya. The American statement noted that the effort falls under the tripartite arrangement among the US, Israel, and Lebanon, guided by the military coordination group set up to carry out the agreements.

Horowitz pointed to a clear decline in Hezbollah strength. "A major shift is unfolding in Lebanon. Hezbollah stands weaker than at any prior point," Horowitz said. "On the opposing side stands a courageous president who aims to end the conflict permanently. As a politician, he seeks to prevent civil war and personal harm, yet he is taking bold steps anyway."

He examined the growth of Lebanese Army operations in the region as Hezbollah loses ground. "We observe the Lebanese Army, which previously took no action and showed zero activity against Hezbollah, now shifting course," Horowitz noted. "With strong American engagement, both motivation and capabilities are being influenced."

"Hezbollah has been sharply diminished in my assessment," he added. "It persists, and we have seen losses, yet this group once aimed to destroy Israel and now appears as a faint version of its former self. The group follows Iranian directives and serves Iranian goals, which in this instance is no mere phrase but a clear fact."

Horowitz: Lebanese Army Builds Strength While Hezbollah Weakens

He added that the Lebanese Army appears to be gaining ground over time. "I believe the Lebanese Army holds the will and must receive the means step by step as Hezbollah loses power to perform these tasks," he said. "This pilot marks the first test for the Lebanese Army. For the first time in years, a chance exists for real change in Lebanon."

"If we proceed wisely and America stays engaged, results should follow," he continued. "Through a steady process and given the group's historic decline, progress is feasible."

Iran Fears Hezbollah Fall, Held Back by IDF

Horowitz then addressed Iranian actions in Lebanon, noting that Iran is deterred by Israeli power and worried about Hezbollah crumbling if fighting resumes. "One reason Iran avoids firing on Israel is its wish to prevent renewed clashes between Israel and Hezbollah," Horowitz explained. "Hezbollah stands in a difficult military spot in every area of contact with IDF troops. Iran and Hezbollah understand this too."

"The key issue is what occurs once Iran steps in, whether Hezbollah joins the fight or stays out," he said. "That forms its critical line, since entering the conflict a third time for outside interests would place the group in a deep hole from which escape would prove hard."

"Ultimately the Lebanese Army knows it confronts a powerful militia," he stressed. "We must let the Lebanese Army slowly widen its efforts against Hezbollah, while recognizing that full confrontation would trigger civil war in Lebanon. From what I see, Lebanon's leaders show no interest in that outcome."