The Islamic Republic signaled its intent to shut the Strait of Hormuz last Sunday and released conditions through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, showing Tehran plans to treat the critical route as a bargaining chip, according to an analyst speaking with The Jerusalem Post on Monday.

Although US Central Command maintained that the passage stayed open after Iran cited Israeli strikes in Lebanon as the reason for closure, figures from Kpler indicated a sharp drop in vessel movement right after the declaration.

CENTCOM reported 55 commercial ships passed Hormuz on Saturday carrying more than 17 million barrels of oil, yet Windward AI recorded just 32 transits the day before and noted that 65 percent of crude shipments since June 8 headed to China.

Three of those ships were sanctioned Very Large Crude Oil Carriers, one flying the Iranian flag and moving in daylight, Windward observed.

Throughout recent clashes, sanctioned ships in the area traveled mostly without signals. The shift to open loading aligns with a fleet that sees no further need for secrecy after the US-Iran agreement of 17 June, the firm stated.

Iranian Measures Breach Global Maritime Rules, Specialist Notes

Beyond bolder use of restricted vessels, the PGSA continues to claim control over Hormuz by requiring prior approval from Tehran plus details on ownership, departure points and cargo.

The Post confirmed that the authority's passage guidelines warn of penalties, permission withdrawal or additional legal steps for non-compliance and reserve the option to impose insurance charges later.

Professor Michael Clarke, a leading British defense specialist and former head of the Royal United Services Institute, told The Post that these Iranian steps violate international law.

Transit passage rights under the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and customary rules guarantee uninterrupted movement through the strait even in conflict periods.

Tehran has sought oversight of Hormuz by first seeking tolls and later fees for safe passage, despite its own actions of firing on vessels and laying mines that endanger traffic.

Washington has not released mine totals, although a White House official told CNBC earlier this month that more than 40 mine-laying vessels were destroyed.

Clarke said Iran seeks to make coordination with the PGSA seem routine before reintroducing demands for revenue from Hormuz control.

The 16th annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper by J.P. Morgan estimates Iran could earn 70 to 90 billion dollars yearly from tolls alone. With one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies halted for over three months and President Trump warning last week that reserves could vanish in four weeks without reopening, Clarke observed that Tehran stands to extract still more from the already advantageous accord.

Global concern has allowed Iran to hold Israeli operations hostage and press for restraint against Hezbollah through fears of oil shortages, Clarke stressed.

Israel, excluded from the US deal, will now face blame for any Hormuz closures, he added.

Trump Urged Syrian Forces Against Hezbollah, Indicating Shift From Jerusalem

Strains between Washington and Jerusalem surfaced when Trump proposed that Syrian units could better counter Hezbollah and after a tense call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Axios reported Trump told Netanyahu to halt strikes on the group, called him crazy, said he would be jailed without US help and blamed him for Israel's poor image.

Israeli journalist Barak Ravid told CNN that Trump aides sensed Netanyahu had slipped from control or that Trump could no longer manage him, given differing goals.

Clarke noted the campaign against Iran lacks popularity at home and, with elections near, Trump seeks to conclude it. Netanyahu, facing security threats after years of proxy wars, aims for regime change through continued pressure.

The Americans effectively conceded on 8 April with the truce and now show gradual retreat, Clarke said, predicting Iran's demands will rise with Washington's growing urgency.

Having failed to end the nuclear risk, Washington returns to managing the threat under harsher terms, he added, noting the early halt strengthened the IRGC regime while weakening civil society.

Citing Foundation for Defense of Democracies data that the conflict cost Iran 144 billion dollars, half its yearly output, plus public anger over January killings, Clarke admitted the chance for regime change passed and that rash US pledges eroded trust among protesters who risked much.

The entire effort marks a major strategic setback, he concluded, forecasting that regime change may still occur but through far greater violence than if pursued now.

Other Observers Say Conflict Was Flawed From Outset

While Clarke viewed the ceasefire as the decisive loss, Dr. Daniel Sobelman of Hebrew University argued the initial decision to confront Iran set the current course that leaves Hormuz contested.

The world long knew Iran might claim or close the strait yet refrained due to US war fears, he said. Once fighting began at the end of February, Tehran saw no reason to withhold its strongest option.

Convinced Trump sought regime change, Sobelman said Tehran moved to show its new position would endure.

Washington now must accept the accord or risk a military clearance of the strait that could hand the regime an outright win if unsuccessful, he warned, potentially confirming an Iranian-led order.

Either path raises Iran's value because the superpower attacked to topple the government yet left it intact, he outlined.

Though the deal troubles Jerusalem and draws sharp criticism from many Post sources, Sobelman suggested restoring balance may be needed to exit perpetual conflict.

Recalling Israel's shift since 7 October from avoiding threats to occupying Lebanese land for security, Sobelman said the agreement could prove useful depending on actions by both sides.

He recalled that after the Yom Kippur War Israel resisted returning Sinai until Egypt's canal move forced talks and produced a lasting though cool peace.

The Americans realized a total Israeli win over Egypt would return both sides to impasse and block talks, he noted, drawing a parallel to today.