Iranian-supported armed groups operating in Iraq have indicated they could split from the state-backed Popular Mobilization Forces and surrender portions of their arsenals to official authorities.

Significant uncertainty remains over whether these steps will lead to genuine change or simply amount to adjustments in labels and formal status while the groups retain their firepower and continue existing patterns.

The Iranian-backed militias expanded rapidly after the ISIS offensive against Iraq in 2014.

A religious decree issued by Iraq's leading Shi'ite cleric Ayatollah Ali Sistani urged young men to form a popular mobilization to confront ISIS. Over 100000 individuals responded and the recruits were later structured into numerous brigades operating under the Popular Mobilization Forces umbrella.

Up to 74 armed factions emerged in Iraq during the campaign against ISIS which was largely concluded in 2017 with the battle for Mosul. Iraq subsequently incorporated the PMF into the state apparatus as a formal paramilitary organization creating an Iraqi counterpart to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Following the defeat of ISIS the relevant authorities were expected to disband these factions and reintegrate their members into civilian life or official structures an expert noted to UAE media on June 3.

Several of the most influential factions within the PMF maintain close ties to Iran and carry US terrorist designations including Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq while Badr the largest entity does not hold such a designation.

In recent months following the appointment of new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi Washington has urged him to curb militia influence. These groups conducted hundreds of strikes during the period of heightened Iran tensions after US and Israeli actions on February 28 targeting American diplomatic sites and areas in northern Iraq's Kurdistan Region.

Militias Responding to American Influence?

Developments in Iraq now show movement. Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced that his Saraya al-Salam force would come under full state authority prompting similar statements from other factions. Iraqi groups are indicating they may cut formal connections to the PMF.

Nevertheless observers in UAE media question whether the moves represent an Iranian tactic or a response to American demands.

Reports highlight that Iraqi factions are declaring separation from pro-Tehran elements raising debate over whether the actions reflect Iranian strategy or submission to US pressure.

An Iraqi specialist speaking to Al-Ain News stressed that armed groups holding heavy weapons missiles and autonomous military capacity violate the Iraqi constitution and noted that Iran has bolstered these factions with military and logistical aid while drawing some into regional conflicts that must now cease.

The expert added that the core difficulty lies in enforcing state authority and ensuring weapons remain solely with official bodies without triggering broad internal strife.

On Tuesday the Imam Ali Brigades and Asaib Ahl al-Haq declared they had started processes to detach from the Popular Mobilization Forces and place weapons under state control Al-Ain reported following a gathering of the Shi'ite Coordination Framework.

Many armed militias also maintain political representation in parliament mirroring the Hezbollah approach in Lebanon. Iran's IRGC has aimed to replicate its model in Iraq through the PMF structure.

An Iraqi expert told Al-Ain that some factions have shown willingness to comply while others do not acknowledge state authority over their political and ideological alignments.

Iran has strengthened these groups through military and logistical support including bases training centers and advancements in missiles drones and various weapons while involving some in regional conflicts contrary to Article Nine of the Iraqi constitution which bars armed forces outside official structures according to the expert.

Additional Developments in Iraq During This Transition

The United States is pressing Iraq to halt threats directed at other nations a clear reference to the militias. US Charge d'affaires Joshua Harris expressed hope that Iraq can stop threats originating from its territory.

Newly appointed US Special Envoy to Iraq and Syria Tom Barrack who previously focused on Syria has commended Iraq's prime minister for efforts to bring arms under government oversight.

Shafaq News reported that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi presented Washington with a proposal tying expanded US-led service and investment initiatives in Iraq to measures restricting weapons to state control and enabling disarmament of armed factions a political source confirmed on Tuesday.

Kataib al-Imam Ali an Iran-aligned militia operating under the Islamic Resistance in Iraq banner announced on Tuesday that it would end organizational links to the PMF and initiate steps to place weapons under state authority. The Islamic Resistance comprises several Iran-linked groups responsible for attacks on the US and Israel.

Shi'ite cleric and politician Sayyid Ammar al-Hakim leader of the Al-Hikma National Movement voiced support for consolidating weapons authority under the state.

The Imam Ali Brigades declared their separation from the PMF while confirming the start of procedures to ensure weapons are held only by the state. It remains unclear whether they will physically transfer arms or simply exit the PMF structure.

The brigades' decision followed shortly after Asaib Ahl al-Haq another militia announced it would begin implementing steps to disengage from the PMF.

It is uncertain how other major armed groups will respond. Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba a US-designated terrorist organization has opposed the government initiative.

Kataib Hezbollah also a designated terrorist group appeared to support efforts by armed factions to hand weapons to the Iraqi state while offering to take responsibility for and potentially acquire advanced systems Rudaw media reported.

The outlet further noted that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq formed immediately after the Gaza war began in October 2023 with its main components overlapping PMF members such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq Kataib Hezbollah Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada.

Iraq clearly faces a critical juncture. It remains to be seen whether the country will collect the weapons and whether the groups will truly disarm or merely alter their official status while retaining arms and continuing to destabilize Iraq and the broader region.