Good morning. Another week has passed marked by tense exchanges on social media and fragile truces that collapse almost instantly.

US president Donald Trump suggests a deal with Iran may emerge shortly, yet residents across the Middle East sense that calm remains distant. Communities have endured fresh strikes in Lebanon this week, with rising casualties, struggling economies and widespread displacement.

For locals this means keeping essentials ready to evacuate by bus, vehicle or on foot toward safer ground, whether for days or much longer.

Emma Graham-Harrison has covered events from Kabul, Beijing and Madrid over more than ten years and took up the role of chief Middle East correspondent in Jerusalem last May. I spoke with her while she prepared to fly to Zurich for an award nomination tied to her Gaza coverage. Our discussion explored daily realities for those facing repeated upheaval as global attention shifts or fades. First the main headlines.

Five big stories

UK politics | Andy Burnham stated he would start fixing the flawed social care framework this year if elected prime minister, telling the Guardian that Westminster keeps avoiding tough policy challenges.
Environment | A broad plan shows humanity can improve living standards, cut inequality and limit global temperature rise to 2C.
Ukraine | Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged direct talks in an open letter to Russian president Vladimir Putin.
England news | Proposed planning reforms risk leaving England's poorest and least green communities further behind in access to open spaces, a study warns.
UK news | Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor earned private income by subletting three cottages on his Windsor estate while paying minimal rent to the crown, according to a review of royal holdings.

In depth: This is not a ceasefire. It is a never-ending auction over our lives and our blood

As the week ends Donald Trump again claimed Iran stands close to a US peace deal that would reopen the strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments.

Yet many feel peace is not approaching. Israel carried out its deepest advance into Lebanon in over two decades this week, with strikes killing at least nine and forcing hundreds of thousands from southern homes. The moves disrupted talks between Washington and Tehran. On Thursday Israeli defence minister Israel Katz said operations would continue hours after a US-backed truce was announced. Hezbollah's leader later dismissed the truce and demanded full Israeli withdrawal.

Emma describes this as clear territorial expansion welcomed by hardline voices in Netanyahu's coalition who seek to claim southern Lebanon along with Gaza and the West Bank.

While Trump pulls back due to domestic unpopularity and rising costs, Israeli analysts think Netanyahu aims to widen the fighting for personal advantage.

Does Israel seek wider fighting?

Emma notes the conflict opened with strong results for the US and Israel, yet the expected closure of the strait of Hormuz has created a deadlock with no clear path to victory.

She adds that many Israelis view the coming vote as a judgment on whether Netanyahu delivered security improvements since the October 2023 attacks that killed 1,200 and wounded many others, enough to offset earlier security lapses.

Since the Iran conflict began, Israeli ambulance data through April show thousands injured and 23 killed by missiles from Iran and Lebanon.

Even early on Emma reported that senior Israeli defence officials saw regime change in Iran as unrealistic. With that aim unlikely, retention of enriched uranium became the real test of success or failure.

Now the war is stalled and the nuclear issue central to Israel appears absent from talks, pointing to likely failure, she says.

Netanyahu may instead focus on Israel's upcoming Knesset elections, which my colleague Michael Segalov outlined recently.

In that setting a return to fighting in Lebanon and Gaza serves clear political and electoral goals, Emma adds.

Continued disaster in Gaza and fading global concern

Despite a US-brokered truce that took effect last October, Emma reports more than 900 deaths in Gaza from ongoing Israeli strikes since then.

Over one in ten of Gaza's 2.3 million prewar residents have been killed or hurt since the campaign began, turning the territory into a ruin that a UN panel has called genocide. Survivors are now squeezed into a narrow coastal strip while Israeli forces extend beyond the agreed line to seize further ground.

Israel holds at least 60 percent of Gaza, now largely destroyed, with almost no Palestinians able to remain, Emma says.

Aid was meant to increase under the truce yet remains insufficient, leaving shortages of water, medicine and food, with many still hungry.

Israel claims enough supplies arrive, though a prior ban on food shipments triggered famine last summer.

It remains a severe humanitarian crisis, Emma notes, with combat claiming over 100 lives monthly on average, conditions most places would call active war.

The White House shows little focus despite Trump's stated interest in a Nobel prize. Reports indicate envoys have shifted attention to Iran as the higher priority for Trump, given domestic backlash and effects on US living costs, Emma says.

EU leaders plan to criticise Netanyahu's advances in Gaza and Lebanon at an upcoming Brussels meeting, yet he has long ignored such statements and the EU has not used its economic weight as Israel's top trading partner.

Governments worldwide appear more worried about oil prices and inflation than Gaza's plight. Plenty of statements emerge but few concrete actions improve conditions for those trapped in terrible uncertainty.

Daily life in Iran and Lebanon

People across the region live in uncertainty, Emma observes.

Many Iranians oppose their government, as seen in January protests that brought deadly crackdowns.

Yet they place little hope that war will produce better leadership.

They also doubt, based on past evidence, that outside bombing campaigns will deliver freedom, recalling the long turmoil after the US-led invasion of Iraq.

Residents in Tehran, especially government critics, have lost friends in recent violence, face bombardment without shelters and confront further conflict or state collapse, Emma explains.

That explains widespread fear and anxiety.

Iranians have told the Guardian they feel abandoned by outside powers while suffering economic damage and a strengthened regime.

Business owner Amir from Mashhad said he once hoped for US action but now feels humiliated, describing the situation as a never-ending auction between the US and the Islamic Republic over lives and blood.

Lebanon faces similar conditions, Emma reports. Large parts of the population reject Hezbollah yet face Israeli strikes on Beirut, occupation in the south and village destruction that rights groups call potential war crimes, with no expectation this will bring freedom or growth.

Beyond immediate safety risks come economic blows that hit women, minorities and the poor hardest, plus the mental strain of constant uncertainty.

In Lebanon families struggle to plan visits when travel halts, alongside memories of the 1980s civil war and 2006 conflict with Israel.

Can elections deliver real shifts?

With votes approaching in the US and Israel some look for hope. Emma worries that hope may be misplaced. Israel's main opposition figure shows little policy difference from Netanyahu, while Trump's response to midterms remains unpredictable.

What is clear is the daily burden on those living with packed bags ready.

Emma says residents across Lebanon, Iran and Gaza ask why western democracies let Israel breach laws meant to protect civilians, and why European nations loudly condemn Russia for similar acts in Ukraine yet stay largely silent here.

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