ByDR. ITAY GAL

AUGUST 3, 2026 14:51

A uncommon impact that will produce a fresh crater is anticipated on Wednesday when a large segment of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket strikes the Moon at seven times the speed of sound. The strike will take place on the Earth-facing side near the Einstein crater and may loft a plume of dust and rock pieces that could stay detectable by sensitive telescopes for several minutes.

In Israel the event is timed for roughly 9:35 a.m. local time rendering observation challenging amid daylight conditions.

The object on course for the lunar surface is the expended upper stage of a Falcon 9 launched from Kennedy Space Center in Florida on January 15 2025. The vehicle lofted two private spacecraft bound for the Moon: Blue Ghost from US firm Firefly and Resilience from Japan ispace. Following separation the upper stage entered a high unstable orbit intersecting the Moon trajectory.

For more than a year the rocket part traveled through space influenced by the gravity of Earth the Moon and the Sun. In May specialists monitoring orbital objects identified that its path would conclude with a direct lunar collision.

Updated projections place the impact on August 5 near 6:35 a.m. UTC at roughly 2.43 kilometers per second or about 8 700 kph.

Kinetic energy to drive massive blast and new crater

The stage measures about 12 meters long and four meters wide with a mass near four tons. Energy released on impact should equal the detonation of roughly three tons of TNT. No explosive charge is involved; instead the object kinetic energy will convert to heat and shock waves fracturing the rocket and ejecting substantial lunar regolith.

The initial flash is projected to endure less than one second. Experts anticipate it will appear faint partly because the rocket will hit a sunlit lunar region where surface reflection may mask the event. Standard amateur telescopes are unlikely to record the strike and it will remain invisible to the unaided eye.

Researchers focus chiefly on the ensuing dust cloud. The collision should propel dust rock fragments and metal shards high above the surface. With lunar gravity six times weaker than Earth gravity and no atmosphere or wind the particles may linger aloft for several minutes before settling.

Simulations indicate the primary dust curtain could ascend 15 to 20 kilometers. In favorable cases a narrow fast jet of particles might reach 75 to 100 kilometers. Because the site lies near the lunar limb part of the plume may extend past the lit edge and contrast against space darkness.

Optimal viewing lies across the eastern United States Canada and much of South America where the event occurs at night with the Moon above the horizon. Scientists note even there visibility of the cloud is not assured.

Exact brightness hinges on impact angle surface makeup rocket final trajectory and ejected particle sizes.

Professional teams will deploy high-speed cameras on telescopes to record multiple frames each second. Skilled amateurs with proper gear are invited to attempt documentation. Monitoring will extend past the strike as the evolving dust cloud over ensuing minutes promises the clearest scientific value.

The impact should carve a crater roughly 20 to 30 meters across and five meters deep. Such a feature will be undetectable from Earth yet orbiting spacecraft can image it.

NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea Danuri probe will compare pre-event and post-event images. Danuri is scheduled to pass within several kilometers of the stage about two minutes before contact.

This marks only the second documented instance of rocket debris accidentally striking the Moon. In March 2022 a body linked to a Chinese mission hit the far side producing a double crater. That event went unseen from Earth and was identified later in orbital imagery.

Prior deliberate lunar impacts by rockets

Spacecraft and rocket parts have been intentionally directed into the Moon for research purposes.

During Apollo NASA crashed stages and lunar module sections to generate seismic signals recorded by instruments left by astronauts. In 2009 the LCROSS probe impacted near the south pole to search for water ice lofting material analyzed by onboard sensors.

The present collision was unplanned. Space analysts noted it could have been avoided by adjusting the stage path after launch into a stable solar orbit. The event endangers neither people nor hardware yet highlights mounting challenges in managing debris between Earth and the Moon.

Concern is likely to grow as missions increase. The United States China and private firms plan crewed flights and sustained lunar infrastructure.

Debris from comparable strikes could travel hundreds of kilometers harm equipment pollute study zones or threaten astronauts beyond shielded habitats.

Data gathered on Wednesday will aid study of debris dispersal and preparation for future events.