OCTOBER 18, 2026 08:16

With nine days remaining until election day, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party continues to hold a steady edge over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud in four new surveys, yet neither political camp approaches the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, based on results released by Maariv, Channel 13, Kan News, and Channel 12.

The four surveys present nearly identical outcomes: the Zionist opposition averages 51.25 seats against 51 for Netanyahu's bloc, creating a virtual standoff that positions Arab parties and smaller groups near the threshold as decisive players before voting begins.

Maariv survey: Winter falls short of threshold, Eisenkot stays in front

The Maariv survey indicates the Arab parties each picked up one seat in the past week, reaching a combined 14 seats. Likud, meanwhile, dropped two seats to reach 18.

Even with Likud's two-seat loss, the coalition bloc slips by only one seat to 51. This comes after United Torah Judaism gained one seat to reach eight, and People of Israel cleared the threshold with four seats.

Yisrael Beytenu also shed one seat to land at eight, trimming the Zionist opposition bloc to 51 and producing a tie between the two sides.

Channel 13 survey: Netanyahu bloc drops four seats

Channel 13's poll awards Netanyahu's bloc just 51 seats, down from 55 in its prior survey. Likud fell two seats to 18, while Eisenkot's Yashar party held its lead at 20 seats.

Eisenkot's bloc stayed flat at 50 seats. The unaffiliated Arab parties together receive 15 seats.

KAN News survey: Winter misses threshold, Bennett adds a seat

A KAN News poll found Eisenkot's Yashar party still leading Netanyahu's Likud, though seat distribution between the blocs gives Netanyahu a slight edge.

At the lower end of parties clearing the threshold are People of Israel with four seats and the joint Reservists/Economic Party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, also at four seats.

The survey's key takeaway is the bloc balance: Netanyahu's side receives 53 seats versus 50 for Eisenkot's bloc, handing the prime minister's camp a three-seat lead.

Channel 12 survey: Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu, People of Israel stays out

Channel 12's poll put Eisenkot's Yashar party first with 23 seats against 20 for Netanyahu's Likud.

Winter's People of Israel remained below the threshold with 1.8 percent of the vote.

Bloc balance held steady, with 54 seats for opposition parties, 49 for the coalition, and 13 for Arab parties. Hendel and Zelekha's party secured four seats.

Polling average: Eisenkot maintains slim lead, blocs stay nearly even

The average across the four polls shows an almost balanced split between the two camps. The opposition averages 51.25 seats against 51 for Netanyahu's bloc.

Among Zionist parties, neither side holds a clear advantage.

The margin expands once Arab parties are factored in. They average 13.75 seats, while the Hendel-Zelekha party sits at four seats outside the bloc split.

Combined, the Zionist opposition and Arab parties average 65 seats.

Eisenkot also leads among the largest parties. Yashar averages 21.5 seats against Likud's 19, while Bennett trails at 12.5.

The overall outlook points to an extremely tight contest within the Zionist camps, where Arab parties and smaller factions may prove decisive.

The average draws from seat distributions in four separate polls and does not represent a fresh survey or election forecast.