Khamenei's Future in Iran: Questions Mount for the New Supreme Leader

With Iran appearing to have reached a memorandum of understanding with the United States, attention now turns to the next phase. Regional observers worry about the potential for renewed clashes.

Key matters such as the nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, unfrozen assets, and related topics still require resolution.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stands at the heart of these developments. His father, the previous supreme leader, died early in the fighting. Doubts persist about how the younger Khamenei will secure his position.

Surviving the war may prove simpler for the supreme leader than the tougher task of turning the title into genuine authority, which starts immediately after the fighting ends, according to UAE-based Al-Ain News.

Al-Ain News draws on distinctive regional sources and mirrors perspectives from the UAE, making its assessments noteworthy.

IRGC Attains New Heights of Influence, Analysis Cautions

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its commanders have gained more sway than ever, bolstered by assertions that they rescued the regime from downfall. This situation could endanger Khamenei if he fails to secure their allegiance, the report notes, drawing partly from a UK Telegraph account.

Mojtaba Khamenei has stayed out of public view and is believed to have suffered injuries during the February 28 airstrikes.

The current Iranian system appears more militarized than before. Roughly six weeks prior to the US and Israeli strikes, the IRGC suppressed tens of thousands of demonstrators, strengthening its domestic hold.

In principle, Khamenei holds ultimate decision-making power as supreme commander of the armed forces under the constitution, yet this control means little without the Revolutionary Guard leaders' compliance, Al-Ain News observed.

Iranian President May Serve as Scapegoat for Regime

An Iranian official informed the Telegraph of a power shift. Separate sources told The Jerusalem Post that some hardliners in the IRGC considered a coup to block any agreement.

The moderate Iranian president has fronted recent public aspects of the deal and could face blame if issues arise.

Khamenei's approach to rule and the reach of his control remain untested, with one official likening the situation to a sealed watermelon whose quality is unknown until opened, Al-Ain News stated. To govern effectively, Mojtaba must break apart his father's networks, sideline generals, outflank competitors, and install his own allies, a process he has reportedly started, per the Telegraph.

Mojtaba maintains a separate intelligence apparatus involving the Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC intelligence unit, the report indicated, suggesting he may follow his father's 1989 playbook upon taking power.

Possibilities include removing Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei from the judiciary and eventually sidelining loyalists such as Ahmad Vahidi, a senior Revolutionary Guard figure viewed as close to Mojtaba.

Mojtaba occupies a weaker stance than his father, who benefited from years to build support and the endorsement of the revolution's founder as a first-generation figure who endured imprisonment under the Shah, Al-Ain News reported.

Such uncertainty might foster fresh policy ideas or spark internal disputes.