ByDANIELLE GREYMAN-KENNARD

JULY 13, 2026 15:53

The Gulf region is facing mounting frustration as Iran persists with strikes on neighboring states and shipping lanes, raising the prospect of measured military responses from regional powers, according to Bahraini analyst Ahmed Alkhuzaie in remarks to The Jerusalem Post on Monday.

Alkhuzaie, who leads the Washington-based Khuzaie Associates LLC consultancy, noted that while Gulf countries prefer to avoid direct offensive moves, options such as targeted strikes, expanded sea patrols, or discreet operations remain possible should provocations persist.

On Monday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan, stating the targets included American military sites and equipment. These actions have intensified in recent days despite an earlier, now largely ineffective agreement with Washington.

Iran's push to dominate the Strait of Hormuz through vessel attacks along the Omani passage and diplomatic overtures offering benefits to compliant parties has largely fallen short.

Alkhuzaie explained that Gulf states will adjust their approach carefully to prevent runaway escalation while making clear that security issues cannot be overlooked.

He emphasized that the core goal for these nations is to pair deterrence measures with efforts to preserve stability so Iran recognizes the consequences of ongoing aggression.

The Peninsula Shield Force, serving as the joint military component of the Gulf Cooperation Council, stands positioned to lead any unified effort, he added.

Combined Military Resources and Regional Unity

This force embodies both joint operational strength and political alignment among Gulf members, he observed. It has evolved with assets spanning ground forces, air units, and naval elements tailored for regional threats. Its presence allows Gulf states to coordinate rather than operate alone, boosting their collective warning power and demonstrating solidarity against outside pressures.

Beyond this framework, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hold advanced military capabilities suited for a unified defensive stance, while Kuwait, despite its typically restrained diplomatic approach, retains effective protective resources.

American forces stationed throughout the area further bolster the overall defense setup. Oman benefits from its location near the Strait of Hormuz, and Bahrain supports key maritime operations through its role hosting the US Fifth Fleet.

Collectively these countries create a multi-tiered security system that draws on more than hardware alone. Their shared geography, control of critical passages, shorelines, and skies provide added leverage for any response. Political alignment through the GCC, backed by the Peninsula Shield Force, enables even smaller members to increase their impact via joint moves.

This cohesion, paired with outside ties, ensures the Gulf deterrent relies not only on its biggest players but gains from the input and positioning of all six members, he concluded.

Although Yemen's defense ministry confirmed strikes on a runway at Sanaa International Airport under Houthi control to block an Iranian aircraft, initial reports pointed to Saudi involvement. Saudi Arabia avoided direct targeting in Iran's latest round but has endured civilian harm from prior Iranian actions.

When asked if striking an Iranian proxy might achieve balance without full escalation, Alkhuzaie indicated Gulf states are moving in that direction.

Regional economies have already faced significant strain and cannot absorb repeated blows indefinitely, he stated.

Second Analyst Shares Views with Post

Mojtaba Dehghani, an Iranian specialist on Middle East matters, told the Post that Gulf states may accept Iranian attacks more readily than their statements indicate. Their priority centers on maintaining stability, sustaining investment appeal, and upholding the perception that the Persian Gulf remains somewhat shielded from broader conflict rather than focusing on appearances.

He does not view an open, independent military move by the Gulf states as probable at present. Instead, he anticipates an indirect, multi-layered approach featuring closer US coordination, improved air defense ties, intelligence exchanges, and enhanced maritime protection.

Dehghani added that Gulf states will likely route diplomatic efforts through Oman and Qatar while steering clear of any perception that they are spearheading action against Iran.

The bar for a direct reply would be considerably higher, such as major casualties on Gulf territory, a serious strike on Saudi or Emirati energy sites, extended closure of Hormuz, or clear failure of US deterrence, he outlined. Until such points arise, he expects them to allow Washington to handle most visible military tasks while they reinforce their own protections.

Although he noted shrinking Gulf tolerance, he assessed that the region is unlikely to initiate a response yet and will continue supporting US moves privately.

The challenge lies in needing safeguards against Iran while recognizing that closer public alignment with a firmer US-Israel stance could heighten exposure to Iranian countermeasures, he said.