Aviation executives are converging on Brazil this weekend for the annual Iata global gathering, an event that underscores the sector's determination to keep operating at full tilt even as fuel supply worries linger.

Although oil tankers remain affected by tensions involving the US, Israel and Iran, carriers have so far shrugged off predictions of severe shortages that once raised the prospect of disrupted European holiday flights this summer.

Holding the summit in Rio could signal renewed confidence across aviation, especially after the meeting was cancelled amid the pandemic and later shifted to a virtual format.

The host city was selected at the previous gathering in Delhi, where India's prime minister highlighted the sector's role in national growth. At that time global traffic had recovered and jet fuel traded just above 80 dollars per barrel. Prices have since climbed past 140 dollars despite recent easing.

Cirium analysts note that jet fuel accounted for more than a quarter of airline expenses in 2025, with each extra dollar per barrel adding roughly 3 billion dollars to yearly costs. Worldwide, carriers have cut about 6 percent of seats from schedules amid elevated prices and softer demand.

European operators, once viewed as most vulnerable, have maintained near-normal timetables ahead of the busy holiday period. Additional kerosene supplies from the US and West Africa have helped ease the strain as markets react to higher prices.

EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas sought to reassure markets on Friday, stating there is no current shortage in Europe and no indication one will develop soon.

Major airlines have hedged much of their fuel needs, limiting immediate exposure. Yet forecasting long-term costs remains difficult, especially if conflict drags on. EasyJet chief executive Kenton Jarvis noted the carrier paused hedging because prices swing sharply with political developments.

Takeover interest in EasyJet from US private equity group Castlelake, possibly joined by another European airline, reflects wider consolidation talk. The low-cost carrier sits outside the traditional Iata membership of legacy and long-haul operators whose pricing power differs from short-haul models.

The conflict has hit Gulf carriers hardest, given their pivotal role in reshaping long-haul networks. Observers await their next moves after operations were halted when fighting began in late February and hub airports faced drone strikes plus airspace closures.

Emirates, which hosted the 2024 Iata event in Dubai, is expected to maintain a low profile in Rio, with its chief executive not attending.

Discussions on environmental impact are likely to receive less attention this year, though carriers retain a financial incentive to improve fuel efficiency per passenger. Earlier oil price spikes in the 2000s spurred orders for newer aircraft, yet traffic growth continues to outpace efficiency gains and expand the sector's carbon output.

Sustainable aviation fuels remain on the formal agenda, though enthusiasm has waned. Iata director general Willie Walsh, who once championed the fuels as the main solution, has criticised governments for setting mandates while supply growth stalls.

Walsh, former British Airways chief, will leave his Iata role held since 2020 to lead India's fast-expanding low-cost airline Indigo, which recently cancelled its direct Delhi-Manchester service over high fuel costs.

Iata has not confirmed whether a successor will be named in Rio or next year. After repeated crises, most members still expect to remain in business beyond the current period.