Key Points

Investors should stay alert to market forces that might lift SpaceX higher temporarily.
SpaceX cannot enter the S&P 500 before June 2027, which limits near-term buying pressure.
Bridging the divide between lofty expectations and actual results is essential for long-term success.
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SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) completed its initial public offering on June 12 and finished the session with a market capitalization of $2.11 trillion. With Broadcom declining after its early June earnings report, SpaceX now ranks as the seventh-largest company globally, trailing Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

Yet long-term investors focus more on SpaceX's future trajectory than its current standing. History shows many firms reached peaks near their IPO-day valuations, including Snowflake and Airbnb during late 2021.

Here is what SpaceX must accomplish to justify its valuation and whether it represents a sound purchase at present.

Image source: Getty Images.

The wild ride is just getting started

SpaceX's share price could move sharply in either direction soon because of strong demand, scarce supply, and financial structuring. The company raised $75 billion through the sale of 555.6 million shares priced at $135 each. These publicly tradable shares form the float.

For most large firms the float represents most shares outstanding since outsiders hold the majority. New public companies usually impose a 180-day lockup restricting insider sales.

SpaceX is accelerating this timeline via a performance-linked lockup policy. Continued price gains could allow insiders to sell sooner and at elevated levels to satisfy demand. Retail investors, institutions, and ETFs all seeking SpaceX shares could drive the price upward quickly for reasons detached from fundamentals.

Investors planning a five-year or longer horizon should proceed carefully during this phase to avoid purchasing for incorrect motives. The S&P 500 index administrators appear to share this view.

Index lock out

On June 4, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced after review that the Index Committee would not accelerate inclusion of firms into the S&P 500 based purely on market capitalization. SpaceX must therefore wait at least 12 months for possible addition and must satisfy additional requirements.

This choice blocks S&P 500 index funds and ETFs from acquiring SpaceX shares, curbing demand. The decision to preserve index stability and shield investors from chasing speculative names signals caution and may imply respondents viewed the valuation as stretched.

A growth stock like no other

With only $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue and a net loss of $4.94 billion, SpaceX is clearly not valued on current results. Still, credible factors support potential growth into the valuation over time.

SpaceX faces virtually no large-scale rivals and operates in a vast market. Morgan Stanley released a report this month projecting SpaceX could achieve $330 billion in 2030 revenue, with $190 billion from artificial intelligence, and $3.4 trillion by 2040 through aerospace, satellites, and AI. Approaching these targets would deliver substantial returns even for buyers at today's price.

The Starlink constellation ended 2023 with 2.3 million subscribers, rising to 4.4 million in 2024 and 8.9 million in 2025. Revenue per user has declined as residential customers supplement commercial and government contracts. Starlink closed 2025 with 9,600 broadband and mobile satellites. From 2023 through the end of 2025, SpaceX handled 80 percent of mass launched to orbit, covering satellites, crew, and payloads.

SpaceX also controls xAI and Grok, a top AI model, plus the X platform. AI may affect revenue sooner than Starlink expansion. Alphabet's Google reportedly pays SpaceX $920 monthly to access portions of its AI infrastructure.

Although AI models and orbital launches appear unrelated, SpaceX aims to deploy solar-powered AI compute satellites offering a more efficient alternative to terrestrial data centers. Orbital facilities would operate as closed systems, eliminating heavy water-based cooling needs.

Keep SpaceX on a watch list (for now)

If SpaceX continues to capture investor enthusiasm, it could stay in or grow beyond the $2 trillion group. The company could also support its valuation through earnings by scaling Starlink and monetizing xAI, generating cash flow for capital-heavy projects such as orbital data centers.

Whether admired or criticized, SpaceX remains unique. Yet given the low-float mechanics and IPO excitement, investors would benefit from waiting until public markets absorb the shares before purchasing.

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Daniel Foelber holds shares in Nvidia. The Motley Fool holds positions in and recommends Airbnb, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft, Nvidia, S&P Global, Snowflake, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool maintains a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.