Essential Highlights

SpaceX hit a record market value of $2.9 trillion soon after its public debut last month.
In recent weeks a downturn has wiped out close to $1 trillion from the firm's market capitalization.
Returning SpaceX shares to an upward path will demand many positive developments in quick succession.
10 stocks we prefer over Space Exploration Technologies

Only three firms worldwide hold market capitalizations exceeding $3 trillion, with three others close to that level. Microsoft carries a valuation near $2.8 trillion, while Amazon and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stand at $2.6 trillion and $2.3 trillion.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) follows closely at roughly $2 trillion today. After its landmark public offering last month, the firm briefly reached nearly $3 trillion before a steep pullback began.

For investors SpaceX presents an interesting example of volatility alongside valuation upside. Reaching $3 trillion again would call for faster revenue growth plus a strong story showing it can surpass established technology leaders.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX shares have followed a volatile path

The company's brief public trading record shows sharp movements. Right after the IPO the stock surged from $150 on the first day to an intraday peak of $225.64 within days.

Since that high nearly three weeks ago the shares have declined steadily, erasing almost $1 trillion in value in under a month. The drop mirrors pressures on fast-growing businesses when economic conditions change and investors question project timelines.

SpaceX's path shows how quickly views can shift for a company active in satellite services, reusable launch systems, and AI infrastructure. Yet the same forces that lowered its value could turn around with new positive developments.

Buyers of the recent dip are wagering that core progress will lift the share price once more.

What growth drivers does SpaceX hold?

Justifying a $3 trillion valuation requires both higher revenue and a solid price-to-sales ratio. To reach these targets SpaceX should expand on its new AI infrastructure agreements with Anthropic, Alphabet's Google Cloud, and Reflection. These deals total up to $82 billion and would demonstrate broader income sources beyond Starlink subscriptions and government launch work.

Combining the AI infrastructure chance with steady profits from growing Starlink users and better launch costs could move attention from future plans to current earnings strength.

Annual revenue of $100 billion at a 30 times sales multiple would imply a $3 trillion market cap. Strong revenue growth, clear profit paths, and multiple expansion separate firms that merely rebound from those that set fresh records.

Can SpaceX surpass Microsoft?

Microsoft sits nearer a $3 trillion value on paper, yet it has faced challenges holding investor interest through much of 2026. Rivalry for Azure from AWS and Google Cloud plus questions over AI spending returns have cooled growth hopes. SpaceX offers distinct advantages via Starlink as a proven revenue source, major potential from Starship commercialization, and new ties to the AI buildout cycle.

Consistent new AI capacity contracts and steady positive results could position SpaceX as a faster-growing option versus established tech names. Capital tends to favor stories with stronger perceived momentum. In this setting SpaceX might reach $3 trillion ahead of Microsoft because expansion room remains greater for a younger high-growth business than for a mature leader.

Still, the goal appears ambitious. It would need near-perfect delivery across programs, including scaling AI infrastructure, maintaining Starlink profits, and advancing Starship on a tight schedule without major operational or economic setbacks.

While the elements for a quick valuation lift are present, they hinge on several favorable conditions aligning at once. Therefore the prospect of SpaceX becoming a $3 trillion company in the near term remains more hopeful than likely.

Should investors purchase Space Exploration Technologies shares today?

Before considering shares in Space Exploration Technologies, note the following:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team recently named the 10 top stocks for investors to acquire now, and Space Exploration Technologies did not appear on that list. The selected 10 stocks may deliver substantial gains ahead.

Recall that Netflix joined the list on December 17, 2004. A $1,000 investment then would now equal $395,679. Nvidia joined on April 15, 2005, turning $1,000 into $1,294,805.

Stock Advisor's overall average return stands at 929 percent, far ahead of the S&P 500's 211 percent. Review the latest top 10 list through Stock Advisor and join a community created by individual investors for individual investors.

Stock Advisor returns as of July 12, 2026.

Adam Spatacco holds positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool holds positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool maintains a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.