In Michigan, autumn means both election campaigns and cider season. The Franklin Cider Mill near Detroit serves hot donuts and chilled cider slushies. Between bites, visitors shared thoughts on their finances three weeks before Election Day.

Many described ongoing struggles. One woman said most people are having a hard time. A man added that he feels uneasy about the economy at present.

High school principal Jeffrey Robinson summed it up: It sucks. We have parents that carpool that are finding it hard to keep gas in the car.

Joanne Hsu leads the long-running consumer sentiment survey at the University of Michigan, which began in 1946. She noted steady drops in confidence since the Iran conflict began, touching every group.

Sentiment now sits lower than in most modern periods, including the mid-1970s stagflation, the 2008 financial crisis, and recent post-COVID price jumps. Democrats, Independents, and Republicans all report worse views than during the first Trump term.

Even with a strong stock market and rising wages, inflation remains the core issue. The share expecting pay to outpace inflation fell from 18 percent a year and a half ago to just 11 percent in September.

Early gains after Trump's reelection faded when inflation did not ease quickly. Grocery prices climbed more than four percent over two years, gas rose 35 percent, and 30-year mortgage rates are set to stay above seven percent into next year.

The average public is paying a price

Real estate agent Michael Perna said rates could reach eight percent before dropping to six. In Northville, a typical home has sat on the market over a month. Higher rates cut buyer power by about fifty thousand dollars, leaving listings priced too high.

Even stable earners must accept smaller homes with each rate increase, fueling frustration. Perna said many share his negative outlook on the economy.

Back at the mill, views mixed. One woman faulted tariffs for lifting prices yet hoped they would aid manufacturing jobs over time. A man said the economy fell short of expectations under Trump in his second term.

Principal Robinson added that everyday people bear the cost and questioned how long they can continue without relief.