Key Points

The Federal Reserve is set to convene for its seventh session this year on July 29.
Kevin Warsh has typically favored reduced openness, heightening the prevailing uncertainty.
The Fed dot plot indicates that about half of the voting members support a rate increase this year, with the other half opposing it.

On July 29, the Federal Reserve will conduct its seventh gathering of the year, marking the second under the leadership of new chair Kevin Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell.

During 2026, the Fed has maintained the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, aiming to balance inflation control with preventing a deeper economic downturn.

The July meeting faces several complicating elements:

Warsh recently told Congress he has "no tolerance" for elevated inflation and pledged to relegate it "to history." This points to a strong hawkish position that might prompt rate increases later in 2026.
Although Fed members unanimously decided to keep rates unchanged at the June meeting, the dot plot reveals a division on future policy. Half anticipate a rate hike by year's end, while the other half do not. Projections for 2027 are similarly split between higher and lower rates.

Interest rate directions now carry real uncertainty for the first time in some period. Since Warsh provided no personal forecast and has pushed for diminished forward guidance, this ambiguity may persist.

The July 29 gathering might provide insights into rate trajectories or none whatsoever. This makes the session especially important for market participants.