Key Points

SoFi stock has fallen roughly 50% from its 52-week peak.
Higher rates along with several open questions explain much of the drop.
SoFi continues to expand quickly and may represent good value at present levels.
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Eight months ago, SoFi (NASDAQ: SOFI) changed hands near $33 a share. It now trades at about half that price even after delivering 41% revenue growth, record loan originations, rising profits, and strong gains in selling additional products to current members.

Why does the share price lag the business results? Several factors explain the decline, which I will outline shortly. Still, I predict SoFi will climb back to prior highs and more than double from today's price inside one year.

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Image source: SoFi.

How SoFi reached this point

Understanding the causes behind the 50% slide from the highs is useful. Multiple issues played a role:

SoFi's lending operations thrive when rates are low and consumers feel confident. Inflation has hit a three-year peak, keeping rates high and opening the door for the Federal Reserve to lift them further.
First-quarter results topped forecasts, yet leadership left guidance unchanged, hinting at slower growth later.
SoFi sold $1.5 billion in new shares earlier this year near $27 with no urgent need. The bank already held ample capital, and such moves are viewed as dilutive.

Additional pressures include missing S&P 500 inclusion and a critical report from Muddy Waters Research.

Why SoFi could double

SoFi posted strong first-quarter 2026 numbers: 41% revenue growth, membership up 35% to 14.7 million, loan originations at a record $12.2 billion, and net income more than doubling. Management expects earnings per share to rise about 40% annually through 2028 at least.

The cross-buy rate, now at 43% versus 36% a year earlier, deserves attention. It shows existing customers adding products, which lowers acquisition costs and deepens ties. Average customers hold 1.5 products today versus 4-6 at large banks, leaving clear room for growth.

Further positives include the new stablecoin from a chartered bank, the SoFi Plus membership tier, and the expanding fee-based loan platform. External factors such as lower energy prices after any Iran conflict resolution could also support financial stocks.

The bottom line

Calling for a double inside twelve months is a bold call. If rates stay high or consumer confidence weakens, the stock may remain inexpensive for longer.

Even so, SoFi shows the traits of an overlooked name with meaningful upside. Risk-reward appears favorable, and I already hold a sizable position while planning to buy more at these prices.

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Matt Frankel, CFP® has positions in SoFi Technologies. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.