Key Points

Bitcoin has stayed in a bear phase since October 2025.
Historical patterns suggest the next bull market will start within a couple of quarters.
The quantum computing threat could seriously disrupt any upcoming bull run.

Sentiment among everyday Bitcoin holders feels closer to mourning than celebration right now. Still the groundwork for the next bull market is being prepared by the very bear market conditions that seem most discouraging today.

The record of earlier market cycles offers a useful guide for what to expect next, so here is my prediction for how events will unfold.

The supply squeeze will continue

For Bitcoin long-term price action the coins that matter most are those sitting untouched and their numbers keep growing.

There are now 16.7 million Bitcoin held in one wallet for 155 days or longer compared with just 13.7 million at the same point in 2020. With a hard cap of 21 million coins the steady accumulation by long-term holders will keep driving scarcity. The April 2028 halving will cut new issuance in half again and further tighten an already limited float.

That supply squeeze will eventually push the price higher as it has before.

The bull market peak will probably arrive in 2029 roughly 12 to 18 months after the halving just like prior cycles. Analytical models point to a possible range of $300000 to $800000 per Bitcoin at the top though these remain estimates meant only to illustrate substantially higher future prices.

The next bull market itself is likely to begin sometime after September 2026 matching the roughly 12-month length of earlier bear markets.

A new risk factor emerges

One fresh concern is quantum computing a danger investors did not face previously.

Theoretically a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break Bitcoin encryption within five years. If that scenario appears probable it would weigh on the bull cycle until the threat is either ruled out or fixed through protocol upgrades. Either path could create headaches for holders.

Developers must reach consensus implement and coordinate any upgrade without central leadership and controversial decisions could trigger sharp drawdowns.

Macro conditions may also magnify or dampen the advance. Easy money and abundant liquidity usually help Bitcoin while tighter conditions do the opposite.

Even so Bitcoin outlook stays constructive and the next bull market will confirm it.

Should you buy Bitcoin right now?

Before buying Bitcoin consider this.

Analysts have just named the 10 best stocks to buy now and Bitcoin is not among them. Those 10 names could deliver strong returns over the coming years.

Past selections such as Netflix and Nvidia produced exceptional gains for early investors. The overall service record shows average returns far ahead of the broader market.

Join to access the latest top 10 list and connect with a community of individual investors.