Key Points

Viking is advancing candidates in the expanding weight loss drug market.
The company's lead candidate is progressing through late-stage studies.

Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) has experienced some stock weakness lately, including a decline over the past year. Yet over five years, shares of the biotech firm have risen more than 300%. This growth stems from enthusiasm around the company's prospects in a sector projected to approach nearly $100 billion within a few years, namely the weight loss drug market.

Viking has not launched a product commercially, but it holds a promising candidate in advanced trials, positioning it near potential entry into this lucrative field. The biotech, focused on metabolic and endocrine disorders, could therefore generate substantial revenue in the near term.

Although investors have not flocked to the shares recently, momentum may shift soon. Viking anticipates releasing data from a maintenance dosing study of its weight loss candidate in the third quarter and plans to initiate a phase 3 trial for the oral formulation in the fourth quarter.

With these developments ahead, the question arises whether Viking stock could reach $100.

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High-performing weight loss treatments

Viking's lead candidate, VK2735, is an investigational dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist similar to leading products from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. These therapies target hormonal pathways tied to digestion, aiding appetite control and blood sugar regulation. The Lilly and Novo offerings have achieved major commercial success due to strong efficacy, safety profiles, and convenient administration.

While these large pharma players lead the category, the market's rapid expansion leaves room for additional entrants. Even without dominating the space, a firm like Viking could secure significant sales, marking a major milestone for an emerging biotech.

Viking differentiates its approach by pursuing both injectable and oral versions of VK2735. If approved, it would mark the first dual GLP-1/GIP therapy in oral form and the first available in both formats. This flexibility would allow patients to transition between options, such as beginning with oral treatment and switching to injectable for ongoing management.

Injectable and oral options

The phase 3 trial for the injectable version continues, while the oral formulation's phase 3 study is slated to start later this year. Data from the maintenance dosing trial is also expected soon. Such milestones often influence the stock, which has responded sharply to prior announcements. Phase 2 results for VK2735 released a couple of years ago drove a more than 100% single-day gain.

Returning to the outlook, could Viking reach $100? The shares hit a peak above $94 following phase 2 data in February 2024. They have since retreated and currently trade near $27. Wall Street analysts on average project a recovery to over $92 in the next 12 months.

A move to $100 would require more than a 200% advance. While unlikely in a single surge, positive trial updates or broader sector tailwinds could support gradual progress, suggesting Viking may head toward that level in coming quarters.