Key Points

Bitcoin declined 18% of its value in June, briefly falling under $60,000.
Although Bitcoin's recent drop has caused concern, it forms part of a standard four-year pattern of growth and decline.
Even with record Bitcoin ETF outflows, large-scale investors continue to acquire Bitcoin.
10 stocks we prefer over Bitcoin ›

June ranked among the weakest months lately for crypto market participants. Bitcoin fell 18% during June and briefly moved beneath the $60,000 threshold. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows also hit new highs as holders exited positions.

Yet I keep adding to Bitcoin holdings this summer. Here is the basis for this opposing view.

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Bitcoin's four-year cycle

I grow more certain about the accuracy of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. One main trait of Bitcoin involves its typical trading in four-year periods of expansion and contraction. This stems largely from the expected Bitcoin halving event that takes place every four years.

Image source: Getty Images.

That explains why Bitcoin's present weakness requires no alarm. Following three strong years, Bitcoin now posts a weak year exactly as expected.

Review the past data and the four-year cycle appears clearly. Bitcoin saw large drops in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Thus a significant decline likely arrived in 2026.

Potential catalysts for Bitcoin

Bitcoin's June decline, its weakest month since 2022, did raise worries. It followed fresh doubts on the Bitcoin treasury company approach and concerns that investors shifted from crypto toward artificial intelligence and other high-growth areas.

Several positive factors lie ahead. One involves fresh support for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. After President Donald Trump issued an executive order to form it last March, progress stalled. This year, leading congressional figures highlight benefits of growing the reserve.

Next, worries over Bitcoin ETF outflows in June may exceed the facts. Coinbase Global notes that institutional buyers still purchase Bitcoin. Sovereign wealth funds also add Bitcoin holdings.

Overall, Coinbase reports 40 nations at different points of building Bitcoin reserves. These purchases may bypass ETFs, so they do not register as ETF inflows.

Bitcoin to $100,000 this year?

Bitcoin may still reach the $100,000 level before 2026 ends. Traders on the Kalshi prediction market assign a 14% chance of that outcome.

One factor is Bitcoin's stronger results in the year's final months. Q4 has ranked as the strongest quarter historically. Bitcoin has risen an average of 77% in Q4.

Thus this is not the moment to abandon Bitcoin. Instead it offers a chance to buy at reduced prices. Delaying until year-end could mean missing the window.

Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?

Before purchasing Bitcoin shares, note this point.

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Dominic Basulto holds Bitcoin. The Motley Fool holds and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool maintains a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.