A quantile analysis study identifies some green cryptocurrencies as stronger volatility transmitters than green assets, questioning common assumptions

, /PRNewswire/ -- Investors often favor ESG funds and green bonds expecting both ethical and financial protection. Energy-efficient cryptocurrencies using Proof-of-Stake protocols have appeared as options to standard cryptocurrencies known for heavy energy demands. The question of whether these assets support each other or increase risks stays unresolved.

A new study, led by Professor Sang Hoon Kang of Pusan National University, examined the links between seven green cryptocurrencies and three major green financial benchmarks. Using daily market data from November 2017 to July 2024, which covers the COVID-19 pandemic period, the team explored how risk moves across sustainable financial markets under varying conditions. The findings of this study were published in Volume 12 of the Financial Innovation journal on June 09, 2026. "As green cryptocurrencies become more integrated into sustainable investment portfolios, we wanted to understand their hedging ability and how it differs from traditional green finance options," explained Prof. Kang.

The researchers used a quantile vector autoregression framework, an advanced statistical method that captures market behavior during bearish, normal, and bullish conditions.

The analysis showed a clear U-shaped pattern in market connectedness. During stable market conditions, interactions between green cryptocurrencies and traditional green assets were moderate, allowing for meaningful diversification opportunities. However, connectedness rose sharply during both market downturns and booms. Under these extreme conditions, assets became far more synchronized, reducing diversification benefits and increasing the potential for financial contagion.

Portfolio analysis also suggested traditional green assets provide only limited hedging effectiveness against green cryptocurrency volatility. Among the cryptocurrencies studied, Cardano and Stellar emerged as the most influential transmitters of volatility across the sustainable finance ecosystem. In contrast, green bonds, clean energy indices, and ESG investments consistently acted as net receivers of volatility, absorbing disturbances generated elsewhere in the system.

These findings challenge the traditional perception of green financial assets as reliable safe-haven investments. Although green bonds and ESG-related assets are often regarded as defensive portfolio components, the results indicate they may remain vulnerable to shocks originating in green cryptocurrency markets, particularly during heightened uncertainty.

The study further showed how major global events strengthened these connections. Market interconnectedness increased during the COVID-19 pandemic and remained elevated during subsequent geopolitical disruptions. As crises intensified, diversification benefits weakened and risk spillovers became more pronounced across sustainable asset classes.

As green cryptocurrencies become increasingly integrated into investment portfolios, evidence of asymmetric spillovers will be important for preventing investors from assuming all "green" assets are automatically safe or diversifying. "While investors may need to adopt more dynamic portfolio strategies, regulators should consider measures aimed at monitoring and managing systemic risks associated with emerging green digital assets," explained Prof. Kang.

The study provides new evidence that sustainability-focused investments are not immune to financial contagion. As the green finance ecosystem continues to expand, the findings of this study can help investors, fund managers, and policymakers in developing monitoring tools, volatility thresholds, disclosure standards, and cross-border regulatory frameworks for green digital assets.

Reference
Title of original paper: Are green bonds and green energy markets hedges for green cryptocurrencies? A quantile VAR approach
Journal: Financial Innovation
DOI: 10.1186/s40854-025-00868-8

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